Valneva shares have significantly retreated this Thursday, dropping 3.34% to 4.624 euros during the session, in a Parisian market that is also trending downward. This decline comes just under a week before the announcement of the 2025 annual results, scheduled for March 18. Despite this setback, the stock has still gained nearly 21% over three months and more than 42% over a year.
By losing more than 3% this Thursday, Valneva has fallen below its 20-day moving average, which is at 4.66 euros, a level that had acted as a support zone in recent sessions. However, the price remains above the 50-day moving average (4.32 euros), indicating a medium-term upward trend. The RSI, positioned at 54, suggests a neutral zone, far from overbought or oversold thresholds, indicating no strong directional tension at this stage. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock is now in the lower half of the channel, between 4.26 euros (lower boundary) and 5.05 euros (upper boundary). The identified resistance threshold at 5.08 euros has not been tested in recent days, while the most relevant technical support is around 3.89 euros, significantly below the current price. This technical framework suggests the stock is in a consolidation phase after its strong quarterly performance.
Valneva's Financial Calendar: A Key Short-Term Element
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Valneva's financial calendar is a key short-term element: the Franco-Austrian biotechnology group is set to publish its 2025 annual results on Wednesday, March 18, less than a week away. This upcoming event could partly explain the current movements in the stock, as profit-taking is common ahead of significant announcements, especially after a more than 20% increase over three months. The rest of the calendar includes the announcement of the first quarter 2026 results on May 7, followed by the annual general meeting scheduled for June 1. The 2026 half-year results are expected on August 13. It should be noted that the stock's negative beta (-0.19) reflects a very weak inverse correlation with the market, making it a stock with relatively decoupled behavior from the CAC 40, which is currently down 0.39% at 8,010 points during the session. The SBF 120, meanwhile, is down 0.34% at 6,064 points.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
