Brent Crude Rebounds to $98.35 Following New U.S. Strikes on Iran
US Strikes Reignite Risk Premium
According to Centcom, the strikes targeted missile launch sites and Iranian vessels suspected of laying mines near Bandar Abbas. The operation follows several weeks of relative calm since the April 8 ceasefire, and as senior Iranian officials were in Doha the previous day to advance negotiations.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil and LNG flows transited before the war, remains the epicenter of risk, as was already highlighted during the sequence on May 19. The prospect of a return to normalcy on this strategic artery remains dependent on the outcome of US-Iranian discussions, as Donald Trump set an ultimatum of a few days a week ago. The shock extends beyond crude: the French Flash Composite PMI fell to 43.5 in May, a low since November 2020, with companies highlighting the conflict's impact on their energy costs.
A Trajectory Still Far From April's Peaks
Despite the day's rebound, Brent is down 11.6% over a week and 22.9% over a month, after exceeding $126 several times in April, with a peak at $127.61.
As for whether the price per barrel can decline sustainably, the dynamics remain uncertain: Brent has gained more than 50% since the hostilities began, and the market now seems to be driven solely by daily developments rather than medium-term forecasts. It remains 31.7% below its historical record of $143.95 but well above the annual low of $59.93 reached in the past year.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
