Brent hovers around $72: USA-Iran truce in Hormuz remains under tension

A Fragile De-escalation Over the Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Iran have agreed to halt recent strikes in the Gulf and resume technical discussions this week regarding the June 17 memorandum of understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. This easing of tensions follows several days of escalation marked by missile and drone strikes against American sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as attacks targeting ships in one of the world's main energy corridors.

Tehran has warned, however, that it could end the diplomatic process in the event of further strikes, while Washington maintains a very tough rhetoric. The military situation in the Middle East is evolving rapidly: information related to strikes, ceasefires, and maritime routes may be revised in the coming hours, justifying operators' caution.

Oil: A Risk Premium That Doesn't Deflate

On the oil markets, the rebound remains moderate yet significant given the diplomatic context. Brent is up 0.8% at $72.57 per barrel and WTI is up 1.3% at $70.11, while tanker flows remain disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz.

The announced truce has thus not been sufficient to eliminate the geopolitical risk premium factored into the prices. For investors, this situation maintains pressure on sectors sensitive to energy costs, particularly air transport and the chemical industry, whose margins are directly affected by fluctuations in oil prices. Conversely, the integrated oil sector remains naturally supported by this high price floor, in a market struggling to balance diplomatic easing with ongoing operational risks on maritime routes.

Asia: PBOC Refines Its Tools, Japanese Consumption Surprises

In contrast to the energy report, Asia offers a more readable macroeconomic signal. The People's Bank of China has launched an overnight reverse repo, injecting 300 billion yuan (approximately $44.1 billion) at a rate of 1.25%, which is 15 basis points below the 7-day repo rate set at 1.40%. This tool aims for finer management of short-term liquidity and does not currently indicate any change in the benchmark interest rates.

In Japan, retail sales for May increased by 5.3% year-on-year, compared to a consensus of +3.2%, and rose by 1.9% month-on-month, whereas economists expected +0.6%. Additionally, the April data was revised from +1.3% to +2.1%. This consumption dynamic, driven by the automotive sector and durable goods, supports the thesis of a gradual monetary normalization by the Bank of Japan, although the interpretation of these indicators may evolve with upcoming reports on inflation and employment.