Home Loans: The Deceptive Stability

A Market That Won't Restart

As the 2026 budget vote approaches, 10-year government bonds — the key indicator for real estate rates — are hovering around 3.30%. This stabilization is reflected in bank rate tables: loans average 3.20% over 20 years and 3.30% over 25 years. Some banks have tried to slightly increase their rates, while others have opted to lower them. The result is a near standstill, signaling a market in search of a balance point.

According to Ludovic Huzieux, co-founder of Artémis brokerage, the banking environment remains « open. » Financial institutions have begun meeting their 2026 commercial targets, encouraging them to actively lend, even to profiles that might have been turned away a year earlier. Rejections due to exceeding the annual percentage rate of charge are becoming rarer, long durations are more easily unlocked, and applications are processed within what are once again normal timeframes.

This dynamic should theoretically support demand. However, psychology weighs more heavily than technique. Buyers remain cautious. Rental investors, particularly sensitive to fiscal and political signals, are nearly absent. Property taxation, uncertainties about energy reforms, and rent volatility all contribute to widespread hesitation. The only driving forces in the market are purchases that cannot be postponed: job relocations, separations, and family expansions.

The Return of First-Time Homebuyers

In this stagnant landscape, one category is managing to stand out: first-time homebuyers have become the majority again. They now account for 42% of borrowers, compared to 29% in 2024, indicating a market shift back toward purchasing primary residences rather than investing in rental properties. The new, more generous zero-interest loan, which is now focused on high-demand areas and open to middle-income earners, is playing a significant role in this trend.

The average amount borrowed by these new buyers reaches 305,000 euros, a high figure that reflects two opposing dynamics: on one hand, the desire to take advantage of still reasonable interest rates; on the other, the rise in prices in some areas and the lack of suitable supply. The market remains divided between regions where prices are adjusting and areas where scarcity maintains high levels.

This structure creates a paradox: credit conditions have never been so uniform, yet projects only proceed when absolutely necessary. Borrowers are waiting for clearer political signals, particularly regarding property taxation, energy standards, and rent trends. In other words, the blockage isn't financial; it's psychological and regulatory.

By the end of 2025, a deceptive sense of stability has set in. Interest rates remain unchanged, banks are willing to lend, and public mechanisms support first-time homebuyers, but demand stays dormant. For the market to truly rebound, more than just a shift in interest rates is needed; a political climate that restores buyers' confidence and visibility is essential.