Real Estate: Property Stands Firm Despite Turbulence

The old rebounds, the new falters

Good news for property owners: the rise in prices of existing properties is confirmed. In September 2025, the average price per square meter reached €3,377, up 1.7% over the year and 2.2% over three months. Apartment prices increased by 1.8%, while houses rose by 1.6%.

“The listed prices for apartments have rarely been this high,” notes Michel Mouillart, an economics professor and spokesperson for the barometer.

This resilience is explained by the scarcity of supply and increased selectivity among buyers. Following the storm of 2023–2024, marked by price adjustments and a freeze on many transactions, the market has partially rebalanced. The issuance of real estate loans is cautiously picking up, supported by a slight easing of rates and a gradual return of confidence.

Sales jumped by 16% over nine months, an encouraging sign, although activity remains 20% below the 2017–2019 average.

“The adjustment is progressing slowly, but it's happening more through volume than through prices,” analyzes Michel Mouillart.

In the new construction sector, however, the outlook is more subdued. Prices dropped by 1% for houses and 0.9% for apartments in the third quarter of 2025. The slowdown in demand, coupled with high construction costs and insufficient supply, is weighing on new project starts. Buying new properties remains hampered by the disappearance of many aid programs and the refocusing of home loans.

Widening Regional Disparities

The French market remains profoundly unequal. Paris stands out with an average price of €10,840 per square meter, but the growth there is slowing down (+1.6%). The capital confirms its structural decoupling: a flow market rather than a stock market, where adjustments are made at the margins. Crossing the city limits, the differences become staggering, with prices dropping 15 to 55% depending on the neighboring communes.

In the regions, the hierarchy remains: Lyon, Bordeaux, Toulouse, Nice, and Nantes range between €3,500 and €5,600 per square meter, with generally stable markets. However, the momentum has shifted: attractive suburbs and medium-sized cities are gaining the upper hand, driven by the teleworking economy and the search for quality of life.

Some areas even show remarkable performances: Aquitaine, Burgundy, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, and Picardy report increases in sales by 20 to 25% over a year, while others—Midi-Pyrénées, Rhône-Alpes, and Pays de la Loire—experience a slight decline.

These differences reflect a silent recomposition of the market: households now prioritize accessible locations that are well-served, offering land and rental yields exceeding those of saturated metropolises.

A Recovery Without Euphoria

On average, the number of transactions in the resale market increased by 13.7% over the year, with a seasonal slowdown since summer (-34.6% in August). Île-de-France remains the driving force of the market, up 18.9% year-over-year, while the provinces grew by 11.4%. This recovery remains fragile, relying on slightly decreased interest rates, as well as aggressive commercial strategies and occasional price cuts.

Despite this, signs are pointing in a positive direction: price stabilization, a return of confidence, and easing interest rates could trigger a more virtuous cycle by 2026. High margins offer buyers a window of opportunity, while investors are regaining interest in rental properties, particularly through REITs or bare ownership.