Alstom shares sink to a two-year low at €10.21, RSI at 15

A floor at €10.21 and an RSI down to 15

Alstom shares fell 1.06% to €10.22 and touched €10.21 intraday, a new two-year low (the previous record, €10.32, dated from 2024). The stock has thus broken below €10.33, a level that had served as a floor and now becomes a resistance.

The RSI at 15 reflects the violence of the sequence: the stock has lost nearly 36% in one month and 55% over one year. It trades well below its 20-day moving average (€13.39, a gap of 23.67%) as well as its 200-day moving average (€18.32, a gap of 44.21%), and ranks among the largest decliners in the SBF 120 while the index is stable.

The 10-year French OAT, at 4.76% as of November 12, remains close to its recent peak in a directionless Paris market.

Revised targets sharply lower, half-year results due November 17

The decline extends the one that followed the preliminary announcement of November 2, when the group lowered its targets for fiscal 2026/27: an adjusted EBIT margin of around 1% instead of 6.5%, and a free cash flow of -€1.5 billion, whereas positive cash generation had been expected. The company cites execution difficulties with the Coradia Max platform and the delay in milestone payments.

On the short-selling side, nine funds together hold 6.15% of the capital, i.e. 1.08 points more in one month, according to the disclosures reviewed: a high level, which shows that the bearish bet has strengthened without alone explaining the fall.

Based on the consensus of the analysts surveyed, the stock still trades at 56.4 times expected earnings for the current fiscal year. Half-year results for 2026-2027 are expected on November 17.