Alstom shares hit their lowest level in 250 sessions, RSI collapses to 17
The rail manufacturer extends its decline and trades at levels it had not seen for a very long time. Two brokerage firms have just lowered their targets, in a Paris market trending downward.
A title under all its markers after the revision of annual targets
The Alstom share falls 1.87% to €10.76, after breaking intraday below its lowest level of the past 250 sessions, at €10.96. This level has now become resistance.
The decline reaches 33.28% over the week, the magnitude of a fall that closely followed the revision of annual targets, published on November 2 with the preliminary half-year results: an adjusted EBIT margin target of around 1% for fiscal year 2026/27, compared with the 6.5% previously announced, and expected free cash flow of minus €1.5 billion.
The share price is now 27.43% below its 20-day moving average, while the RSI at 17 signals a marked oversold configuration. In the Paris session, the CAC 40 loses 0.88% and the stock ranks among the weakest of the SBF 120, which also falls 0.88%.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays cut their targets to €9 and €8
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Two brokerage firms lowered their price target on November 4. Goldman Sachs cuts its target from €15.50 to €9 while keeping its sell rating, and Barclays reduces its own from €10 to €8. These two targets are below the current price, by 16.3% for Goldman and 25.6% for Barclays.
On valuation, the consensus of the analysts covered points to a projected P/E ratio of about 8.1 times earnings for the current fiscal year.
On the short side, eight funds together hold 5.94% of the capital, up 0.82 point over thirty days: a high level, signaling institutional investors positioned for a decline in the stock, without their motivations being specified.
The revised targets remain the company's key numerical benchmark, and a Capital Markets Day is scheduled for the second quarter of 2027.
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Context
Period
Period: S1 2027
Key reported figures
Revenue: 9 300 millions d'euros
Quarterly revenue: 9 300 millions d'euros
Revenue growth: 3 %
Free cash flow: -1 248 millions d'euros
1 100 millions d'euros
Guidance from the release
« Marge d'exploitation ajustée d'environ 1 % pour l'exercice fiscal 2026/27, contre 6,5 % annoncé précédemment » ; « Cash-flow libre de (1,5) milliard d'euros pour l'exercice fiscal 2026/27, contre une génération de cash-flow libre positive précédemment »
Risks mentioned
Difficultés persistantes d'exécution de Coradia Max et allongement du calendrier d'homologation
Décalage de paiements de jalons sur exercices futurs et impact sur cash-flow 2026/27
Risques opérationnels identifiés sur autres projets allemands nécessitant rationalisation
Opportunities identified
Demande solide pour les solutions ferroviaires et portefeuille d'opportunités robuste
Initiatives opérationnelles et plan de désendettement en cours pour renforcer le bilan
Capital Markets Day T2 2027 présentant la trajectoire financière à moyen terme et marges vers 8-10%
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 19 746 millions d'euros
Management commentary: « Croissance organique du chiffre d'affaires comprise entre 2 % et 4 % au cours de l'exercice fiscal 2026/27, contre environ 5 % précédemment »
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.