Aperam confirms expected EBITDA decline in third quarter, energy costs expected to weigh approximately €20M per quarter
As it approaches its quiet period preceding the publication of its quarterly results, the stainless steel and special alloys producer released an update on October 6, 2026 on its market trends and financial indicators. The group describes underlying European demand unchanged at a low level, with order books showing no notable improvement.
Adjusted EBITDA between levels of first two quarters
Aperam confirmed the third quarter 2026 outlook presented during the publication of second quarter results, in management podcast and during the telephone conference on July 31, 2026. This release therefore constitutes a reminder of previously communicated guidance. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter is expected to decline compared to the second quarter (€130M), but slightly higher than the first quarter (€90M). According to consensus compiled by the company, analysts anticipate an average of €113M.
The group indicates that Brazil continues to benefit from seasonally supported activity, which partially offsets weaker seasonal demand in Europe in the Stainless, Recycling and Services & Solutions divisions. Scheduled annual maintenance in alloys took place, and valuation effects provide no additional support. Net financial debt is expected to remain stable at the end of the quarter, with the company stating it is on track to maintain year-end net debt below 2025 levels.
On the commercial front, Europe is emerging from the summer holiday period, while activity is slowing in Brazil after a seasonally strong quarter. The Alloys & Specialties division is fully operational after summer maintenance to fulfill orders and meet demand that the group describes as strong, particularly in liquefied natural gas, electric and electronics, as well as aeronautics.
Rising energy costs and expected gains from Leadership Journey plan
The group reports that various geopolitical uncertainties are driving higher energy prices: elevated energy costs are expected to weigh on EBITDA by approximately €20M per quarter. Aperam clarifies that its adjusted EBITDA guidance, cash flow and net debt still rest on assumptions of stable commodity prices. These projections therefore do not account for potential effects of current energy price fluctuations.
On the regulatory front, European commercial defense measures came into force on July 1, 2026, while the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) gradually increases in strength over the coming years. The company indicates it has already recorded significant anticipatory benefits in the first half of 2026, with third quarter impact limited due to seasonally low volumes.
Phase 6 of the Leadership Journey program, launched in early 2026, focuses on value growth by leveraging the group's integrated value chain and innovation. It targets gains of €150M between 2026 and 2028, with a contribution of €38M already achieved in the first half of 2026, with further gains expected in the third quarter.
Third quarter and nine-month results will be published on November 6, 2026 before market opening, then commented during a telephone conference at 2:00 p.m. (Central European time). An investor day will then be held in Paris on November 18, 2026.
