AXA shares showed an increase of 0.79% at the close on Wednesday, January 28, reaching 38.06 euros. This rebound comes after a weekly decline of 2.11%, confirming a mixed start to the year for the insurance group.
AXA shares are currently trading below their 20-day moving average, which stands at 39.48 euros, indicating a short-term downward trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23, a level that suggests an oversold zone and indicates potential selling fatigue. This technical setup, coupled with a monthly volatility of 3.92, illustrates investor nervousness amid recent fluctuations in the stock. Over three months, the insurer has declined by 3.91%, while maintaining a rise of 4.7% over the past year. These indicators signal a slowdown in the bullish momentum observed over the longer term, in a context where the insurance sector continues to face regulatory pressures and evolving interest rates.
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Market participants' recommendations remain positive. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed a buy rating at the beginning of January with a target price of 45 euros, representing an appreciation potential of 18% compared to the current price. KBW, on the other hand, adjusted its target to 47 euros in December, with an 'outperform' rating, implying a possible rise of 23.5%. These forecasts reflect analysts' interest in the stock, despite recent market adjustments. Investors will look forward to the publication of the 2025 annual results on February 26 to refine their understanding of the French group's operational trajectory.
we expect underlying earnings of circa. Euro 8.6 billion with underlying EPS growth at the top end of the target range
Risks mentioned
Softening market conditions in large commercial P&C
Natural catastrophe exposure with normalized Nat Cat load of 4.5 points of combined ratio
Interest rate sensitivity with -50bp interest rates shock expected to result in -1pt impact in Solvency II ratio
Opportunities identified
Growth in Life & Savings segment driven by ageing populations and pressure on existing systems
Expansion in direct distribution channel with rising demand for affordable insurance and digital experiences
Deployment of AI across value chain with expected annual recurring benefits of €500-700m (pre-tax) by 2029
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: 500 millions d'euros
Expected net income: 8 600 millions d'euros
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
