BNP Paribas shares rebound but are still down 21% over three months
The bank recovers in mid-morning, as the CAC 40 trades higher. The rebound follows a sharp decline over the quarter and comes while French debt remains under pressure.
A rebound that remains far from the stock's moving averages
The shares of BNP Paribas rise 1.33% to €86.79, among the strongest gains in the CAC 40, which advances 0.49%. This movement does not change the medium-term picture: the price remains below its 20-day moving average (MM20), a gap of 1.43%, and especially below its 200-day moving average (MM200), from which it is 8.90% away.
The decline reached 20.86% over three months, compared with a 3.92% gain over the week, so today's rise offsets only a minor fraction of the quarterly drop.
The bank is thus rebounding along with the Paris market, while Fitch lowered the outlook on France's rating to “negative” on October 30 and the 10-year OAT, at 4.93% according to the latest reading on October 30, is approaching its peak.
The stock has historically moved inversely to the OAT-Bund spread, which stands at 1.59 points. Two other French banks, Société Générale (+0.59%) and Crédit Agricole (-0.03%), are moving more moderately this morning.
A €1.3 billion share buyback programme and an SREP set by the ECB
On the fundamentals, BNP Paribas announced on October 28 a share buyback programme of €1.3 billion, following the €1.2 billion repurchased over twelve months, or 1.2% of market capitalisation. A few days earlier, the ECB set the CET1 requirement for 2027 at 10.73%, compared with 12.91% held by the group.
Based on the consensus of the analysts surveyed, the stock trades at about 7.5 times earnings for the current financial year and 6.6 times those of the following year, with expected earnings per share growth of 13.5%. The next technical level to watch is support at €82.57, while resistance stands at €101.30.
