BNP Paribas Stock Stumbles at €94.43 Resistance Despite a Declining CAC 40

A Moderate Retreat Following an Unsuccessful Test of the €94.43 Resistance

BNP Paribas shares fell by 0.27% to €93.72 at close, while the CAC 40 dropped by 0.29% to 8,220.30 points. The stock had reached €94.62 during the session, temporarily crossing its €94.43 resistance before falling back below this level. This aborted move comes a few days after breaking through the €93.40 barrier, documented in a previous bullish session. The underlying momentum remains strong: +2.14% over the week, +7.17% over a month, and +22.29% over a year. The RSI at 59 indicates a still bullish setup without excessive tension, as the price comfortably moves above its moving averages, with a gap of 4.63% from the MM50 (€89.57) and 13.57% from the MM200 (€82.52).

Contained Valuation and an Interest Rate Environment Watched by the Market

At the current price, the stock is trading at about 8.1 times the earnings expected for the current fiscal year and 7.3 times those of the next year, according to the consensus of surveyed analysts. Earnings per share growth is expected at 11.7% from one year to the next. The interest rate environment remains a key factor for the valuation of French banks. The 3-month Euribor stands at 2.226% in May, up 0.24 points over a year, while the sector shows a consolidated CET1 of 15.57% at the end of 2024 according to the ACPR. Earlier this week, the bank raised its profitability targets for its commercial banking in Belgium, aiming for a return on notional equity before tax at 22% in 2028 (up from 20%) and 25% in 2030. With a neutral performance in a CAC 40 weighed down by cyclical and industrial stocks (STMicroelectronics, Schneider Electric, ArcelorMittal), the stock confirms its resilience. The sustainable crossing of the €94.43 remains the next technical milestone to watch.