Carrefour Stock: Shares Cross 16 Euros, Touching Upper Bollinger Band
Carrefour's stock is up 1.51% this Tuesday, at 16.105 euros, continuing an upward trend that has been ongoing for several weeks. The stock is now trading above its former resistance level of 15.87 euros and has gained over 24% in three months. Two banks updated their price targets yesterday.
Jefferies and Goldman Sachs both raised their targets on Carrefour on February 23. Jefferies increased its target from 14.00 to 14.50 euros while maintaining a 'hold' rating. Goldman Sachs raised its target from 15.00 to 16.00 euros, also maintaining a 'neutral' recommendation. These targets are below the current price of 16.105 euros, implying a potential downside of about 0.7% for Goldman Sachs and nearly 10% for Jefferies. The caution displayed by these institutions contrasts with the market's appreciation of the stock, which has gained 31% over the year.
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Graphically, Carrefour's stock price this Tuesday is very close to the upper Bollinger Band, located at 16.11 euros, a level that generally signals a potential extension of the rise which may precede a consolidation phase. The stock is positioned well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, at 14.38 and 13.25 euros respectively, confirming a well-established upward trend across multiple time frames. The RSI stands at 72, above the conventionally set overbought threshold of 70, indicating the intensity of the recent movement. The former resistance at 15.87 euros, corresponding to the previous day's closing price, now serves as a technical support point to watch in case of a pullback. The stock's beta, slightly negative at -0.08, indicates a low correlation with the overall market, giving Carrefour a relatively decoupled profile from major market trends.
Objectifs 2026 confirmes : croissance du ROC, marge operationnelle en hausse de plus de 25 pbs vs 2025, cash-flow libre net en croissance vs 2025 (1 565 M€), resultat net ajuste par action en croissance dans le haut de la fourchette a un chiffre. Plan d'economies de 1 Md€ confirme (490 M€ realises au S1).
Risks mentioned
Résultat non courant dégradé à -165 M€ contre -39 M€ au S1 2025
ROC des Autres pays à -34 M€, fortement pénalisé par l'Argentine
Marge commerciale en baisse de -28 pbs à 19,1 % du CA lié aux investissements prix
Opportunities identified
490 M€ d'économies de coûts réalisées au S1, en ligne avec l'objectif de 1 Md€ pour 2026
Objectif confirmé de 130 M€ de synergies Cora & Match à horizon 2027
Cession de Carrefour Roumanie finalisée pour environ 500 M€ et recentrage sur 3 pays cœur
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