In one month, AXA stock has lost 6% and continues to slip by nearly 2%
The Paris-based insurer is declining sharply this Wednesday in a CAC 40 experiencing a significant drop. The stock is losing ground against its short and medium-term moving averages, following a brief rebound the previous day.
A decline that brings the stock below its short and medium-term moving averages
AXA stock is down 1.92% to €41.95 during trading, while the CAC 40 is falling 1.41%. The stock finds itself 3.43% below its MA20 (€43.44) and 4.59% below its MA50 (€43.97), following Tuesday's gain of approximately 2%. It remains, however, 1.30% above its MA200 (€41.41), which serves as the last defense before support at €41.64. Over the month, the decline reaches 6.03%, and the loss over seven days stands at 3.54%.
The RSI at 44 remains neutral: the movement is heavy in price, but it is not accompanied by any oversold zone. This decline is part of a downward-oriented market across all European exchanges, in a context where the 10-year OAT is at 4.83% on October 7 according to the Banque de France, 7 basis points away from its recent peak on October 1. The spread with the Bund (3.49%) is 1.34 points. French debt is thus at tension levels rarely seen since 2011, which the Paris market as a whole is experiencing.
A 2027-2029 strategic plan presented mid-September and improved half-yearly results
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The group unveiled its 2027-2029 roadmap on September 15, which maintains total distribution at 75% of operating earnings per share and plans approximately €25 billion in cumulative organic cash remittances over the period. When publishing its first-half 2026 results on July 31, AXA indicated it was on track to achieve the objectives of its "Unlock the Future" plan. Its operating earnings per share had advanced 8% at that time.
Since then, the stock price has lost approximately 5% over three months, while the stock had approached the €45 resistance level mid-September. This zone, at €45.06, remains the high level to monitor from a technical perspective, while the MA200 and support at €41.64 limit the lower part of the current configuration.
we expect underlying earnings of circa. Euro 8.6 billion with underlying EPS growth at the top end of the target range
Risks mentioned
Softening market conditions in large commercial P&C
Natural catastrophe exposure with normalized Nat Cat load of 4.5 points of combined ratio
Interest rate sensitivity with -50bp interest rates shock expected to result in -1pt impact in Solvency II ratio
Opportunities identified
Growth in Life & Savings segment driven by ageing populations and pressure on existing systems
Expansion in direct distribution channel with rising demand for affordable insurance and digital experiences
Deployment of AI across value chain with expected annual recurring benefits of €500-700m (pre-tax) by 2029
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: 500 millions d'euros
Expected net income: 8 600 millions d'euros
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.