LVMH Stock: Down 28% Over One Year, Rebounds 1.5% with Hermès and Kering
The luxury giant recovers mid-morning and ranks among the strongest gainers in the CAC 40, in an index also well-oriented. This rebound comes after a new multi-year low and two downgrades of price targets.
A rebound that brings the stock back close to its 20-day moving average
The LVMH stock gains 1.37% to €389.30, against €384.05 at the previous close, while the CAC 40 advances 0.57%. The stock ranks in the upper part of the index table, behind EssilorLuxottica, STMicroelectronics and Hermès, which rises 1.95% and whose decline reaches 7.39% over one month. Like Kering, which advances 1.14% after losing 10.76% over one month, the group benefits from a recovery movement in a heavily battered sector.
The price remains however below its 20-day moving average at €392.64 (gap of 0.85%), and well below the 200-day moving average at €486.36, representing nearly 20% difference. The support level at €379.50, broken the previous day, remains the benchmark to monitor: the RSI at 33.66 signals a stock still close to the oversold zone, after a 6.26% decline over one month. The decline of 20.79% over three months and nearly 28% over one year illustrates the scale of the fall: today's gain merely tempers it.
Two price targets revised downward following third-quarter sales
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Third-quarter sales, published on October 12, reached €18,504 million, representing organic growth of 1%, with a decline of 5% for fashion and leather goods, penalized by slowing demand in China. Conversely, selective distribution gained 8%, watches and jewelry 6% and wines and spirits 6%. Following this, TD Cowen lowered its target from €510 to €425 and Oddo BHF from €524 to €466, with an outperform rating. These two targets remain above the current price, by 9% for the first and nearly 20% for the second; the full set of analyst opinions on the stock is available online.
At this publication, the group maintained a confident tone on its leadership for 2026, while citing geopolitical and economic uncertainty among its risks. In terms of cash flows, LVMH repurchased €2.4 billion in shares over twelve months, representing 1.3% of its market capitalization, according to its latest disclosure on September 25. The next key level remains the support at €379.50, while resistance is located at €445.
LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026
Risks mentioned
Uncertain geopolitical and economic environment affecting global business activity
Slowdown in demand in China impacting Fashion & Leather Goods segment
Market sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations (negative 3% impact in 9M 2026)
Opportunities identified
Continued growth in Watches & Jewelry with 8% organic growth driven by strong jewelry performance
Strong performance of Sephora in Selective Retailing with market share gains and network expansion
Recovery in Wines & Spirits champagne business and good momentum in Asia for Hennessy cognac
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026. Despite an economic and geopolitical environment that remains uncertain, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
