LVMH stock falls to €423.75, an unprecedented low since Covid
The luxury giant recorded a new floor on Monday since 2020, thus breaking through the previous bearish record touched last week. Rothschild & Co Redburn nevertheless raises its price target, highlighting a considerable gap with current levels.
A new low since 2020 at €423.75, in a quasi-stable CAC 40
LVMH stock touched €423.75 during trading on Monday, breaking its lowest point in six years (the previous record was €423.80, recorded in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic). The current price has returned to €429.70 after this foray into uncharted territory for more than six years. The CAC 40 is evolving almost in balance (+0.08%), which confines LVMH's movement to the stock's own dynamics rather than an index effect. Over the past week, the stock declined 6.21%, and pressure has intensified significantly over one month (-10.75%).
The luxury sector is meanwhile facing headwinds in its flagship market: Swiss watch exports to China fell 18.5% year-on-year in July, while retail sales of jewelry and gold in China show -10.1% over the same period. This context is weighing on all luxury stocks exposed to Chinese demand. The VIX, meanwhile, rose to 15.26, up more than 5% during the session, reflecting a slight increase in uncertainties on global markets.
Rothschild & Co Redburn raises its target to €580 despite the stock's slide below its moving averages
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While the stock is sliding, analysts' views remain well-oriented: Rothschild & Co Redburn raised its price target on Monday from €565 to €580, while maintaining its buy opinion. At €429.70, the implicit upside potential exceeds 35% compared to this target. Technical indicators tell a different story in the short term. The stock is trading well below its MA20 (€457.91, a gap of -6.16%) and its MA50 (€473.65, a gap of -9.28%), two levels it has not recovered since several weeks.
The MA200 at €518.30 is even more distant (-17.09%). The RSI at 38 is approaching the oversold zone without entering it squarely, which reflects persistent selling pressure but not yet in extreme excess. During the publication of H1 2026 results (July 27, 2026), the group had highlighted acceleration in the second quarter and the successes of new creations for Christian Dior, while pointing out a negative currency effect of -5% and a disrupted geopolitical context among the main risks. The support identified at €439 has already been broken during previous sessions, and the stock has no major technical threshold identified below today's floor level.
LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026
Risks mentioned
Uncertain geopolitical and economic environment affecting global business activity
Slowdown in demand in China impacting Fashion & Leather Goods segment
Market sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations (negative 3% impact in 9M 2026)
Opportunities identified
Continued growth in Watches & Jewelry with 8% organic growth driven by strong jewelry performance
Strong performance of Sephora in Selective Retailing with market share gains and network expansion
Recovery in Wines & Spirits champagne business and good momentum in Asia for Hennessy cognac
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026. Despite an economic and geopolitical environment that remains uncertain, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
