Rémy Cointreau Shares Take a Breather After a 4.5% Surge, Weighed Down by Middle East
The cognac group's stock is retreating at the Paris Stock Exchange as the closing approaches, in a Parisian market heavily shaken by geopolitical tensions. The stock is pausing after several consecutive sessions of gains, without questioning the upward momentum established since spring.
The stock returns to its 20-day moving average
Rémy Cointreau shares are down 2.22% at €44.00, compared to €45.00 the previous day, while the CAC 40 loses nearly 2% and the SBF 120 falls by 2.01%. The Paris session is affected by the resurgence of tensions in the Middle East, following claims of Iranian strikes against military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, in a context of retaliation to American actions. The VIX jumps by more than 11%. In terms of indicators, today's decline brings the stock back to its 20-day moving average (€43.84), which had supported it during the last downturn.
The stock maintains a favorable gap of nearly 5.4% with its MM50 (€41.75) and about 6.9% with its MM200 (€41.17), indicating that the underlying trend since spring remains intact. The RSI at 59 remains in the neutral zone, far from extremes. Despite today's decline, the stock is up +2.1% for the week and nearly 18% over three months. The consolidation comes after a 4.5% surge that had led the stock to lead the SBF 120, a rapid progression that mechanically called for a breather.
Bearish bet still present in capital despite the price recovery
According to reviewed statements, five funds cumulatively hold 5.28% of the capital sold short, a high level that has only marginally relaxed over thirty days (-0.12 point, compared to 5.40% a month earlier). This persistent bearish bet reflects the presence of institutional investors positioned against the stock, even as the price has recovered nearly 18% over the quarter. The interpretation is not straightforward: a level above 5% of the capital indicates structural pressure that still weighs on the stock, but the absence of a massive unwinding of shorts despite the rebound suggests that no bearish capitulation is underway.
This parameter deserves to be monitored session by session, without being overinterpreted from a single figure. The sector context remains unfavorable, with cognac exports falling nearly 11% in value according to the 2024 FEVS report. The resistance at €45.42, tested several times since mid-June, remains the next technical threshold to observe to validate or not the continuation of the underlying bullish movement.
