Safran Shares Take a Breather, Weighed Down by Soaring Oil Prices
The aerospace engine manufacturer pauses this Monday, after a sharp rebound last week. The stock falls back as the CAC 40 advances, penalized along with other aerospace sector values by persistently high oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East.
The stock retreats as defense and aerospace suffer from the oil price surge
Safran shares drop 0.88% to €303.00 in mid-afternoon trading, while the CAC 40 gains 0.42% at 8,217.86 points. The stock moves contrary to an index driven by tech (Dassault Systèmes +6.12%, Capgemini +5.35%) and luxury sectors.
Today's context partly explains this discrepancy: Brent crude has risen above $93 a barrel amid escalating military tensions between Israel and Hezbollah and ongoing strains with Iran. The rise in oil prices traditionally penalizes airlines and, by extension, their suppliers. The defense-aerospace sector is indeed trailing in the index this Monday, with Airbus down 1.68% and Thales down 1.34%. The decline remains moderate in light of recent dynamics: the stock is still up +6.32% for the week and +15.91% for the year.
The stock remains well above its three moving averages, in an intact underlying trend
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The technical setup remains favorable despite today's consolidation. The price is trading above its three moving averages, with a gap of 6.07% over the MM20 (€285.65), 5.08% over the MM50 (€288.34), and 1.08% over the MM200 (€299.77). The crossing of the latter last week remains the most significant marker: the MM200 now acts as a nearby support zone. The RSI at 60 and a MACD in positive territory (histogram at +3.93) confirm the underlying bullish orientation, without signs of excess. The next resistance is located at €316.30, approximately 4.4% above the current price.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
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