TotalEnergies Energy Outlook: up to +2.8 °C by 2100 if current policies persist
TotalEnergies published the eighth edition of its “TotalEnergies Energy Outlook” on November 2, 2026, which updates three scenarios for the evolution of the global energy system through 2060. The report, presented as a contribution to the public debate on the energy transition, incorporates the effects of the Strait of Hormuz crisis that occurred in 2026.
A Transition Underway, with No Decline in Fossil Fuel Demand
According to the group, all energy sources (coal, oil, gas, electricity) still show rising demand. The pace of growth in fossil fuels and associated emissions is, however, slowing, while global economic growth remains above 3%.
Investment in low-carbon energies, including end uses, rose from $1.2 trillion in 2015 to $2.1 trillion in 2025. China accounts for about 60% of solar panel additions, 70% of wind turbines and 60% of electric vehicle sales.
The share of electricity in final energy demand has been increasing by 1.3% per year since 2000. In 2025, the rise in electricity demand was fully met by new low-carbon sources.
The report sees the Strait of Hormuz crisis, following the 2022 Ukrainian crisis, as a resilience test that places security of supply at the forefront. It also notes, since the second quarter of 2026, an acceleration in electric vehicle sales in Asia, Latin America and Europe, with coal remaining essential to Asian power systems.
Three Scenarios Between +1.8 °C and +2.8 °C by 2100
The Trends scenario extends current public policies, technologies and behaviors: OECD countries do not reach carbon neutrality by 2050 under this scenario. Demand for oil products rises, then stabilizes during the 2030s before slowly declining, for an estimated temperature increase of between +2.6 °C and +2.8 °C.
More proactive, the Momentum scenario assumes that the OECD approaches carbon neutrality by 2050 and China by 2060, with natural gas as a transition energy. It leads to a temperature increase of +2.3 °C to +2.4 °C, compared with +1.8 °C to +1.9 °C for the normative Rupture scenario, which would require considerably strengthened multilateral cooperation.
The report anticipates increasingly differentiated regional trajectories. Domestic fossil fuels will still account for about 60% of primary energy in the United States in 2060, compared with 80% today, while China will reduce the share of coal from about 60% in 2025 to about 25% in 2060.
For Aurélien Hamelle, Managing Director Strategy & Sustainability, some trends observed in 2026 confirm the transition path begun since the Paris Agreement, but “do not suggest a sufficient acceleration to achieve the goal of containing global warming below 2 degrees”.
