TotalEnergies shares briefly breach 73.69 €, declining 6.5% over one week
After a turbulent week marked by several technical threshold breaches, TotalEnergies remains under pressure at the beginning of October, despite relative resilience compared to a CAC 40 more heavily shaken by its financial and cyclical stocks. The session is all the more closely watched as Rothschild & Co Redburn has just published an upgraded view on the stock today, while Brent rebounds sharply during trading.
A flash breach of support at 74.17 €, followed by a return above it during the session
The oil major loses 1.82% to 74.32 € at mid-day, within a CAC 40 down 1.13% during the session. The movement momentarily carried the stock below its support level at 74.17 €, with an intraday low at 73.69 €, before the price rebounded above this threshold (last price at 74.25 €). This type of breach followed by a rapid return illustrates the fragility of the level without validating it as a clear breakout. The weekly decline reaches 6.66%, weighing on the overall configuration, even though the stock remains above its 200-day moving average at 71.29 € (difference of +4.25 %).
Conversely, the 20-day moving average at 78.74 € and the 50-day moving average at 76.89 € both loom above the current price, reflecting persistent short-term selling pressure. The RSI at 41 remains below the neutral zone without signaling extreme oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside if support gives way definitively. Brent advances 2.59% to 100.57 $/barrel during the session, without managing so far to reverse the stock's trend.
Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrades to buy with a 97 € target, representing 30% upside potential
On Thursday, Rothschild & Co Redburn raised its price target on TotalEnergies from 92 € to 97 €, while upgrading its opinion to buy. Compared to the current price of 74.32 €, this target represents an upside potential of approximately 30%. Two days earlier, Oddo BHF had maintained its outperform rating with a target raised from 85 € to 88 €, representing potential upside of approximately 18%.
These two consecutive upward revisions come in the wake of the roadmap presented by management on September 28 in New York, during which TotalEnergies detailed its ambitions through 2035 and announced a dividend increase of more than 5% per year by 2030. The group also launched a 2.1 billion euro share buyback program announced on September 28, executed at approximately 3% as of September 29, a mechanical support to the share price that the session's decline puts into perspective. Based on expected earnings, the stock is valued at around 7.4 times current fiscal year earnings according to analyst consensus surveyed, a multiple that the two brokerage houses clearly judge insufficient given the announced trajectory.
