Valneva's Shares Continue to Fall, Threatening Key Support at €2.26
The Lyon-based biotech company experiences another session in the red, amidst a slightly bearish SBF 120. The stock is sinking below key technical levels monitored for several sessions, as the reorganization initiated in the spring continues to impact its stock trajectory.
A 4% Drop Brings the Stock Closer to Its €2.26 Support
Valneva's stock fell by 4.01% to €2.34 at close, marking one of the steepest declines in the SBF 120. This session brings the weekly decline to 12.28% and the quarterly drop to nearly 50%. The price is now very close to the identified support at €2.26, which was already tested in mid-May when the stock nearly touched this level before rebounding. The RSI at 45 remains neutral, with no marked overselling signal despite the recent significant decline. The stock is trading below its three moving averages, with a 7.35% gap below the MM20 and nearly 38% below the MM200, indicating a bearish trend established since the spring.
An Ongoing Reorganization and Lowered 2026 Targets Weigh on Trajectory
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The fundamental context remains burdened by the first quarter 2026 accounts, published on May 13, which showed a 37% contraction in revenue and a net loss of €32.1 million. During this announcement, the company unveiled a reorganization plan aimed at reducing its operational expenses by 25 to 35% and cutting its global workforce by 10 to 15%. Also during the first quarter of 2026, the management revised its revenue forecast for 2026 to between €135 and €150 million, citing particularly unfavorable trends in the adoption of travel vaccines. Moreover, the company announced its participation in three investor conferences in June, an opportunity to present its commercial strategy and its LB6V candidate against Lyme disease, developed with Pfizer. The €2.26 support, now less than 4% away from the current price, is the next technical level being closely watched.
SectorSanté · Vaccins et laboratoires de recherche›Industrie Pharmaceutique
Context
Period
Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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