Valneva's Stock Bounces Nearly 3% Attempting to Recover from a Three-Month Slide
The Lyon-based biotech specializing in vaccines is regaining ground during the session, in a slightly bullish SBF 120. The stock is attempting a recovery after several weeks of decline, while still trading below all its moving averages.
The stock rebounds after breaking through its technical support at €2.21 on June 25
Valneva's stock is up 2.93% at €2.28 midday, ranking among the strongest gains in the SBF 120, which itself is up by 0.39%. This rebound follows a month marked by a 12.71% drop, and a 17.45% decline over three months. The stock had recently tested its support at €2.21, breached on June 25 following its annual general meeting.
The RSI at 43 remains neutral, indicating a decompression without signs of exhaustion. However, the price is still trading below all its moving averages, with a gap of -3.80% from the MM20 (€2.37) and -37.36% from the MM200 (€3.64), which highlights the extent of the multi-month deterioration. The next resistance is identified at €2.67.
A Deteriorated 2026 Trajectory Following the Revised Guidance Announced in May
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Today's rise occurs on a stock that has been weakened for several months. During the announcement of the first quarter 2026 results (on May 13, 2026), the company adjusted its annual revenue forecasts, now expected to be between €135 and €150 million. The management highlighted the focus on key strategic projects, while pointing out the decline in third-party product sales and unfavorable trends in travel vaccine adoption.
Over the past year, the stock has lost 5.08%, but the decline has been concentrated over the last three months. Sustained crossing of the MM20 at €2.37 would be the next technical marker to observe to confirm whether or not the recovery initiated during the session continues.
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Context
Period
Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
