Valneva Shares Drop 2% and Approach Key Support at €2.26
Midday sees the Lyon-based biotech extending its downturn, as the SBF 120 also trends negatively. The stock is sinking into a technically fragile zone, below all its moving averages, and continues to be weighed down by a deteriorated annual trajectory.
Valneva Stock Dips Close to Critical Support Level
Valneva shares decline by 1.96% to €2.30 at mid-session, within an SBF 120 that is down by 0.43%. The stock is now less than 2% above its support level at €2.26, which was previously tested at the end of May and during last week's sessions.
The stock is trading below its 20-day moving average (MM20) at €2.52, showing a deviation of -8.81%, below its 50-day moving average (MM50) at €2.54, and significantly under its 200-day moving average (MM200) at €3.74, over 38% below the latter. The RSI at 40 indicates a persistent selling trend, though it has not yet reached the oversold zone.
Over the week, the stock has lost 12% and has seen a nearly 50% decline over three months, indicating a consistently deteriorating trend.
Stock Trajectory Continues to Be Hampered by Reorganization and Lowered Guidance
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Today's movement follows a pattern that began in mid-May. On May 13, during the announcement of the first quarter 2026 results, the company reported a 37% decrease in revenue and a net loss of €32.1 million, along with a reorganization plan aimed at reducing operational expenses by 25 to 35% and global workforce by 10 to 15%.
On this occasion, the company also adjusted its 2026 revenue forecast to between €135 and €150 million. Factors cited during this announcement included decreased sales of third-party products and unfavorable trends in travel vaccine adoption.
The €2.26 support level remains the most closely watched technical threshold in the short term. A break below this level would open an area without recent reference points; maintaining it could preserve the possibility of stabilization after a nearly 50% drop since the start of the quarter.
SectorSanté · Vaccins et laboratoires de recherche›Industrie Pharmaceutique
Context
Period
Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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