Valneva shares fall 4%, among the worst declines on the SBF 120

A decline that brings the stock back to contact with a resistance zone at €3.07

Valneva falls 4.01% to €2.847 during the session, ranking among the strongest declines on the SBF 120. The correction movement follows a monthly rebound of nearly 37%, which had propelled the stock well above its short-term moving averages. The price remains well above the 20-day MA at €2.48 (a gap of nearly 15%) and the 50-day MA at €2.33, but remains below the 200-day MA at €3.23, which confirms that the underlying medium-term trend remains bearish despite the sharp recent rebound. The RSI at 75 signals a marked overbought configuration, consistent with the amplitude of the monthly rally.

The resistance level at €3.07 was not breached, which mechanically explains the selling pressure observed today. One-month volatility remains elevated at 21.17%, reflecting a stock subject to significant fluctuations over the past several weeks. Over one year, the stock is still down nearly 44%, which illustrates the gap between the recent rebound and the long-term trajectory.

Fundamentals under pressure in H1, but strengthened cash position to finance future developments

The first half 2026 results, published on August 13, showed a widening net loss to €63.3 million, penalized by the decline in sales linked to the planned cessation of third-party transfers and exceptional costs from the termination of manufacturing contracts for IXCHIQ (€9.7 million). The group nevertheless confirmed its annual forecasts with product sales expected between €135 million and €150 million, and total revenue between €145 million and €160 million. Valneva also highlights an expected improvement in gross margins in the second half, following the exceptional effects of the first half. Cash has been strengthened to €121.5 million following a capital raise of €37 million gross, giving the group the means to finance its future developments.

On the short positions side, four funds cumulatively hold 3.40% of the capital in net short positions, according to filed declarations, a level nearly stable over thirty days (+0.02 points). This volume of shorts remains elevated and reflects the presence of institutional investors positioned bearishly on the stock, without the recent momentum revealing an acceleration of pressure. The most closely watched milestone remains regulatory decisions expected within the next twelve months on the candidate vaccine against Lyme disease, for which Pfizer expressed its optimism during the publication of semi-annual results.