Valneva Shares Slide to €2.39, Approaching Critical Support at €2.26
The stock of the vaccine-specialized lab continues to decline this Wednesday at midday. Valneva is down 1.96% at €2.3980, while the SBF 120 index is up 0.56% during the session. The biotech is trading very close to its technical support set at €2.26.
The Stock Continues Its Slide Following a Reorganization Plan Announced Last Week
Valneva is down 1.96% at €2.3980, ranking among the largest declines in the SBF 120, while the broader index gains 0.56%. The weekly loss reaches 5.22%, and the stock has fallen nearly 48% over three months. This movement follows the publication of the first quarter accounts on May 13. The company reported a 37% decline in revenue and a net loss of €32.1 million, compared to €9.2 million a year earlier. Concurrently, the group unveiled a reorganization plan aimed at reducing its operational expenses by 25 to 35% and its global workforce by 10 to 15%. During this announcement, Valneva adjusted its 2026 revenue forecast to between €135 and €150 million, citing a decline in third-party product sales and unfavorable trends in travel vaccines. The capital context remains challenging: the biotech completed a reserved offer of €84 million at the end of April, with €37 million at closing and up to €47 million contingent on the exercise of warrants.
The Stock is 1.32% Below its 20-Day Moving Average and Close to the €2.26 Support
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The stock is below its 20-day moving average (€2.43), and the gap widens with longer averages: the 50-day MA is 20.86% above the current price, the 200-day MA more than 37% above. This configuration indicates a bearish trend that has been established for several months. The RSI at 41 remains in the neutral zone, with no pronounced oversold signal despite the accumulated decline. The €2.26 support, already tested at the beginning of May, is now less than 6% from the current price. The next important event is scheduled for May 21 with the company's participation in the Bernstein European Small & Mid-Cap Conference. The general meeting will be held on June 25, and the semi-annual results for 2026 are expected on August 13.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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