Air France-KLM Shares Drop 9% in a Week, Weighed Down by Middle East Tensions

Surge in Brent Crude Exerts Major Pressure on Air France-KLM

The surge in Brent crude, which crossed the 107-dollar mark this Friday morning, is a major pressure factor for Air France-KLM. Fuel is one of the main expenses for an airline, and the 50% increase in crude since the end of February significantly burdens the group's energy bill. Simultaneously, TTF gas prices have almost doubled over the same period, reflecting the magnitude of the shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East on the entire energy market. In this context, other aeronautical-related stocks also suffered: Airbus dropped by 1.28% and Safran by 3.34%. The previous day, Deutsche Bank maintained its 'hold' recommendation on the stock, while significantly lowering its price target from 11 euros to 9 euros, very close to the current price. This adjustment reflects a revision of prospects in light of the deteriorating energy context.

Technical Analysis Indicates Oversold Condition

Technically, the stock shows an RSI of 16, a level indicating a pronounced oversold condition: this momentum indicator, which oscillates between 0 and 100, signals below 30 that selling pressure heavily dominates. The price of 8.98 euros is significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are 11.11 euros and 11.28 euros respectively, confirming a well-established downward trend. Over three months, the cumulative loss reaches 23%, while the year-on-year decline is set at 9.33%. The next important date for the Franco-Dutch group is April 30, with the release of the first quarter 2026 results. This report will be closely watched to assess the concrete impact of the rising kerosene costs on the company's accounts. The general meeting is scheduled for June 3.