Air France-KLM Shares Surge 6.44% at Close Amid Bid for TAP

Formal Bid for TAP Air Portugal

The Franco-Dutch group has confirmed that it has submitted a bid to enter the capital of the Portuguese airline TAP Air Portugal, joining Lufthansa and IAG in the race for this privatization. The Portuguese government intends to sell up to 49.9% of TAP's capital, with a conclusion expected in 2026. This operation is part of Air France-KLM's strategy to strengthen its presence on routes to South America and Portuguese-speaking Africa, regions where TAP has major strategic advantages. Trading volumes represented 1.33% of the capital, in a stable Parisian market with the CAC 40 slightly up by 0.02% at 7,982.65 points. Over the week, the stock has shown a gain of 3.62%, signaling a resurgence of investor interest after a difficult period. However, the decline remains significant over three months with a drop of 28.99%, reflecting the turbulence experienced by the airline sector in recent weeks. Over one year, the performance stands at +40.07%, significantly outperforming the CAC 40's 10.89% over the same period, which places the case in a positive fundamental dynamic despite recent volatility.

Technical Perspective on the Stock

From a technical standpoint, the stock is in a delicate zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 27, a level clearly in oversold territory which suggests that the stock has been heavily sold in recent weeks and could experience a technical rebound. This configuration is consistent with the movement of the day, with the market possibly anticipating favorable prospects related to the TAP operation. The current price of 10.225 euros is slightly below the 200-day moving average, calculated at 10.30 euros, indicating that the stock is testing its long-term trend. The 50-day moving average is at 11.24 euros, about 10% above the current price, marking a significant technical resistance. The stock will need to break through this threshold to confirm a lasting trend reversal. The identified resistance and support thresholds are respectively at 12.07 euros and 9.26 euros, framing a short-term trading zone. The one-month volatility remains high at 18.96, reflecting the uncertainty characterizing the sector. Moreover, three net short positions represent about 0.72% of the capital, indicating that some market players maintain bearish bets on the case.

Competitive Dynamics with European Airlines

The three major European airline groups have officially expressed their interest in TAP Air Portugal on November 21, 2025, creating a competitive context likely to influence sector valuations. The selection criteria imposed by the Portuguese government include the preservation of the TAP brand, the development of the network and fleet, and the strengthening of strategic air links to Portuguese-speaking countries. For Air France-KLM, this operation represents an opportunity for geographical diversification and consolidation of its position in the South Atlantic market, a market with high growth potential. The positive market reaction reflects the favorable reception by investors to this strategic initiative, despite the recent financial challenges of the group. Air France-KLM's ability to successfully complete this acquisition while preserving its financial solidity will be scrutinized in the coming months. The next steps in the privatization process, expected at the beginning of 2026, will be key moments for the case. In the immediate term, the stock is regaining color and moving away from its recent lows, providing an encouraging signal to shareholders after several weeks of turbulence.