Airbus Forecasts Air Traffic of 10 Billion Passengers Per Year by 2045
The European aerospace manufacturer has released its twenty-year forecast for the aviation market. According to its analysis, passenger traffic is expected to grow by 3.9% per year over the next 20 years, driven by global economic growth and urbanization in developing countries.
Annual Passenger Traffic Growth of 3.9% Expected
Airbus' Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the period 2026-2045 anticipates air passenger traffic exceeding 10 billion annual travelers by 2045, up from about 5 billion in 2026. This growth is based on three pillars: a global GDP growth of 2.6%, an increase of 1.3 billion in the urban population, and the expansion of the emerging middle class. The manufacturer emphasizes that this latter is expected to grow by 1.4 billion people, or an increase of 34%, during this period.
The analysis highlights the resilience of demand despite cyclical disruptions. According to Airbus, regional conflicts and oil shocks do not permanently alter long-term trends, as evidenced by the sector's history.
Decentralization of Networks Enhanced by Aircraft Efficiency
Airbus estimates that the number of small urban centers will grow at a rate three times that of large metropolises, reflecting a redistribution of populations and an increase in migratory flows. This evolution creates new city pairings that were previously unprofitable. The improvement in aircraft energy efficiency now makes routes like Riga-Tenerife or Melbourne-Alice Springs via the A220 viable. Increased range also opens up new direct routes, including Lisbon-Recife with the A321neo, Dublin-Nashville with the A321XLR, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur with the A330neo, and Taipei-Phoenix with the A350.
This configuration influences the manufacturer's product strategy. Its record order book of 9,000 aircraft demonstrates a match between market supply and demand. Over 70% of the A320 Family's order book is for the A321neo and A321XLR versions, suited for new regional and medium-haul connections.
A Need for 42,060 New Aircraft to Meet Growth
The aviation market will need to absorb 42,060 new aircraft between 2026 and 2045: 19,820 to replace old aircraft and 22,240 to meet growth. This composition reflects the trend toward favoring single-aisle (81%) and large aircraft (19%) with low fuel consumption and low CO₂ emissions. Airbus predicts that by 2045, the latest generation aircraft will represent nearly 100% of the global fleet, up from about 39% currently, driven by accelerated renewal post-COVID and the necessity to operate low-density and longer-range routes profitably.
