ArcelorMittal Shares Gain 3.46% at Midday Amid Sector Recovery
ArcelorMittal's stock jumped 3.46% this Wednesday, January 21st at midday, trading at 43.04 euros, up from 41.60 euros the previous day. This increase is part of a remarkable upward trend for the Luxembourg-based steelmaker, with a surge of 85.2% over the year and a gain of nearly 29% over three months. Analysts anticipate a gradual improvement in the market environment, driven by the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in January 2026, which is expected to add between 40 and 70 euros per ton to the price of imported steel.
Analyst Revisions
Analyst revisions on ArcelorMittal SA remain measured. On January 14th, Jefferies raised its price target from 36 to 44 euros while maintaining a 'hold' recommendation, representing a potential upside of about 2% from the current price. Goldman Sachs also raised its target from 30 to 36 euros while maintaining a neutral stance, reflecting a balanced valuation. These adjustments come as Jefferies anticipates an EBITDA of 8.3 billion euros for 2026 and forecasts a price for hot-rolled steel coils around 750 dollars per ton in 2026, up more than 100 dollars from the third quarter 2025 low of 650 dollars. These forecasts are based on several structural factors favorable to the European steel sector. The industry is positioned for a significant rebound in 2026 after hitting a low in 2025, according to Jefferies. The European regulatory context, particularly the carbon border mechanism, should limit competition from low-cost imports and support local producers' margins. The upcoming 2025 annual results, scheduled for February 6th, now serve as a catalyst that investors are watching to validate or refute this recovery scenario.
Technical Analysis
Graphically, the stock presents a favorable setup but requires caution. The stock is trading well above its moving averages, with a 50-day MA at 37.86 euros and a 200-day MA at 30.97 euros, indicating a well-established upward trend. The RSI is at 69, approaching the overbought zone at 70, suggesting potential short-term fatigue. The stock is in a configuration that calls for caution, especially as the price approaches its resistance threshold at 42.13 euros, which has now been breached. Breaking through this technical level paves the way for new highs but also exposes the stock to potential profit-taking after such a spectacular rise. The one-month volatility stands at 6.60%, reflecting amplified movements in a context of sector repositioning. Trading volumes remain moderate, with only 0.18% of the capital traded this Wednesday, which could weaken the strength of the bullish movement in the absence of strong fundamental catalysts. Investors will closely monitor the stock's ability to consolidate above 43 euros before considering a new momentum.
