Dassault Aviation Shares Climb 2.5%, Leading Defense Sector Rebound
The Saint-Cloud aircraft manufacturer stands out in mid-morning trading in a generally declining Paris market. The stock is significantly rebounding after several sessions of decline, positioning itself among the top performers of the broader index. This movement is accompanied by a rebound in other French defense stocks.
A Marked Rebound Bringing the Stock Back to Its Moving Averages
Dassault Aviation shares gain 2.72% to €295.00, after a previous close at €287.20. The stock is among the strongest risers on the SBF 120, which meanwhile is down by 0.26%. The rebound allows the price to come back in contact with its MM20 (€295.12) and to just surpass its MM50 (€293.98, a gap of +0.35%), after spending several sessions below these benchmarks. The MM200 at €300.14 remains out of immediate reach, at 1.71% above the current price, leaving the underlying trend still fragile.
The RSI at 42 confirms this reading of a technical rebound without excess: the stock is emerging from a low zone without yet shifting into a clear bullish configuration. The session follows a 2.5% decline in the previous session, which had brought the stock closer to its support at €283.60. The next technical threshold to watch is the resistance identified at €304.80.
A Rebound Shared with the French Defense Sector
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Today's movement is part of a broader rebound in French aerospace and defense stocks, with Thales up 2.22% and Safran up 1.57%. Over three months, the stock still shows a decline of 7.58%, while the performance over one year is nearly stable (-1.73%). The geopolitical context remains tense, with new Ukrainian strikes reported overnight against the Moscow region, including on a satellite communications center in Dubna, sustaining a risk premium on the defense segment.
On the fundamentals side, the order book remains buoyed by the Indian file: New Delhi sent a formal request letter in early June for 114 Rafales, estimated at €33 billion, with a final agreement targeted for 2027. Operationally, the Falcon 10X completed its first flight on June 19 from Bordeaux-Mérignac, initiating the flight test phase of the program. In the short term, maintaining contact with the MM20 at €295.12 will be the most visible technical marker to assess the strength of the rebound.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
