Renault Shares Limit Their Decline, Supported by Regulatory Hopes
Renault's stock closed down 1.9% on Tuesday, December 16, at 36.69 euros compared to 37.40 euros the previous day. This decline occurs in a context of widespread caution on European markets, despite intraday support linked to expectations of European regulatory easing concerning internal combustion engines. With a traded capital share of 0.45%, the stock stabilizes over the week at -0.19%, while maintaining a gain of 5.55% over three months, but remains down 18.05% over one year.
A Correction Following a Rally
The 1.9% decline recorded on Tuesday marks a correction after several sessions of rebound driven by the strategic partnership with Ford announced on December 9. During the session, the stock had shown a progression of 0.99% around midday, reaching 37.77 euros, boosted by expectations of a relaxation of European rules on internal combustion engines. The European Commission was expected to announce a revision of its CO2 emissions reduction target during the day, and it was only this evening that it announced it was abandoning the all-electric target for 2025. These prospects nevertheless supported the entire European automotive sector, with Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz also rising. However, profit-taking weighed on the stock at the end of the day, bringing the price back to 36.69 euros. Volatility remains moderate at 8.93% over a month, with a very low beta of 0.19, indicating reduced exposure to general market fluctuations. The support threshold at 33.66 euros remains a key level to watch in case the correction continues, while the resistance at 37.40 euros, the previous day's closing level, ultimately held during this session.
Technical Indicators Point to Overbought Territory
Technical indicators show the stock has entered an overbought zone, explaining the day's correction. The RSI is at 71, slightly above the threshold of 70, suggesting a need for consolidation after several sessions of gains. This setup indicates a short-term overheating and justifies the profit-taking observed at the close. Additionally, the MACD shows a MACD line at 0.63 above the signal line at 0.45, with a positive histogram at 0.18, confirming that the underlying trend remains bullish despite the day's decline. The price is moving above the 50-day moving average set at 34.95 euros, validating the maintenance of a positive medium-term momentum. The stock is also below the upper Bollinger band at 37.79 euros, which still leaves room for progression before reaching a technical overheating level. A sustained crossing of the 200-day moving average, currently at 39.06 euros, would constitute a structural recovery signal for the coming weeks.
Strategic Partnership with Ford Continues to Bolster Valuation
The strategic partnership with Ford, announced on December 9, continues to support the valuation of the stock. This agreement involves the production of two Ford-branded electric vehicles on the Ampere platform in northern France, with a market launch planned for early 2028. This alliance validates Renault's industrial expertise in the compact electric vehicle segment, a market where the group has taken a lead with the Renault 5 E-Tech. On a fundamental level, Renault posted a revenue of 39.066 billion euros for the first nine months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year, and confirmed its 2025 targets aiming for an operating margin around 6.5% and a free cash flow between 1 and 1.5 billion euros. The revision of European rules on internal combustion engines, which will lighten the constraints on manufacturers, is also a potential catalyst going forward. The publication of annual results scheduled for February 19, 2026, and the presentation of the new strategic plan in March will be other anchoring points.
