Renault Shares Tumble Following Stellantis Results and a Target Downgrade by Goldman Sachs
Renault's stock is down 3.76% at 30.73 euros mid-morning this Friday, February 6th. This decline follows the publication of concerning results from its competitor Stellantis, and a significant target adjustment by a major American investment bank the day before. The automaker is now trading close to its technical support threshold.
Yesterday, Goldman Sachs revised its price target for the French automaker from 36 euros to 31 euros. However, the bank maintains a neutral rating on the stock. This change represents a nearly 14% adjustment and places the target slightly above the current price, with a limited upside potential of about 0.9%. This revision occurs in a challenging context for the diamond-shaped logo group, which is experiencing a tough time in the financial markets. The stock has fallen 35.67% over the past twelve months and has underperformed by 10.8% over the last three months. Over the past week, the decline has reached 3.27%, indicating a persistent negative dynamic that weighs on the automaker's valuation.
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Technical analysis reveals a worrying situation for Renault, with the stock price significantly below all its moving averages. The 50-day moving average is at 34.31 euros, while the 200-day average stands at 36.87 euros, creating an unfavorable gap of more than 2.50 euros with the current levels. This configuration indicates a structural bearish trend. The stock is currently testing its support at 30.54 euros, a crucial psychological threshold to avoid another downward leg. Conversely, resistance is positioned at 36.36 euros, nearly 18% above the current levels. The RSI, which shows a level of 51, remains in a neutral zone and does not indicate an oversold condition that could attract short-term buyers. The high volatility of the stock, measured at 9.25% over a month, reflects investors' uncertainty ahead of the annual results announcement scheduled for February 19th.
"Nos résultats 2025, dans un contexte de marché difficile, démontrent l’engagement de nos équipes pour délivrer une performance régulière de premier plan parmi les acteurs de l’industrie automobile."
Résultats 2025: chiffre d’affaires Groupe de 57 922 millions d’euros (+3,0 % YoY; +4,5 % à taux de change constants); chiffre d’affaires Automobile de 51 442 millions d’euros (+1,8 %); marge opérationnelle Groupe de 6,3 %; résultat net part du Groupe de -10 931 millions d’euros; résultat net du Groupe hors Nissan de 715 millions d’euros; free cash-flow Automobile de 1 473 millions d’euros; position financière nette Automobile de 7 370 millions d’euros; dividende proposé de 2,20 euros par action; perspectives 2026: marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 %, free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros et dividendes Mobilize Financial Services d’environ 350 millions d’euros; perspectives à moyen terme axées sur une croissance soutenue et la réduction des coûts.
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: Renault Group vise une marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 % du chiffre d’affaires sur le moyen terme et un free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros par an en moyenne sur le moyen terme, incluant environ 350 millions d’euros de dividendes reçus de Mobilize Financial Services à partir de 2026.
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