Renault's stock closed the session on Tuesday, December 30 at 35.47 euros, up 0.8% from the previous day (35.19 euros). Trading volumes remained modest with only 0.18% of the capital changing hands, reflecting reduced activity at year-end. The stock is now trading above its 50-day moving average (35.17 euros), a technically encouraging sign after several weeks of volatility. This increase is part of a broader movement in the European automotive sector, driven by prospects for easing environmental standards. The European Commission voted on December 16, 2025, to revise the terms of the 2035 ban (adopted in 2022 in the Green Pact), moving from a 100% CO2 reduction to 90% for new fleets, allowing for limited combustion engines (plug-in hybrids, e-fuels), a development that could relieve manufacturers facing the challenges of the electric transition. The upgrade of Renault's credit rating to investment grade by S&P Global on December 19 also continues to support investor confidence.
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Despite this daily progress, Renault's stock still shows a negative annual performance of 24%, illustrating the ongoing difficulties of the manufacturer in a tense automotive environment. The RSI at 34 points suggests that the stock is approaching an oversold zone, which could limit further declines in the short term. The price is now fluctuating between the support threshold at 33.72 euros and the resistance at 37.40 euros, with monthly volatility contained at 8.37%. However, the stock remains well below its 200-day moving average (38.56 euros), indicating a still fragile underlying trend. Limited year-end volumes and the absence of immediate catalysts suggest that investors are adopting a wait-and-see posture ahead of the annual results scheduled for February 19, 2026. A sustained crossing of the resistance at 37.40 euros will be crucial to validate a potential trend reversal at the beginning of the new year.
"Nos résultats 2025, dans un contexte de marché difficile, démontrent l’engagement de nos équipes pour délivrer une performance régulière de premier plan parmi les acteurs de l’industrie automobile."
Résultats 2025: chiffre d’affaires Groupe de 57 922 millions d’euros (+3,0 % YoY; +4,5 % à taux de change constants); chiffre d’affaires Automobile de 51 442 millions d’euros (+1,8 %); marge opérationnelle Groupe de 6,3 %; résultat net part du Groupe de -10 931 millions d’euros; résultat net du Groupe hors Nissan de 715 millions d’euros; free cash-flow Automobile de 1 473 millions d’euros; position financière nette Automobile de 7 370 millions d’euros; dividende proposé de 2,20 euros par action; perspectives 2026: marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 %, free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros et dividendes Mobilize Financial Services d’environ 350 millions d’euros; perspectives à moyen terme axées sur une croissance soutenue et la réduction des coûts.
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: Renault Group vise une marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 % du chiffre d’affaires sur le moyen terme et un free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros par an en moyenne sur le moyen terme, incluant environ 350 millions d’euros de dividendes reçus de Mobilize Financial Services à partir de 2026.
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