On this Monday, the aerospace group SAFRAN's stock shows several unfavorable technical signals that reinforce each other. The break of a key support coincides with the recording of a monthly low, outlining a consistent configuration of selling pressure. This occurs in a market context marked by increased volatility.
SAFRAN is trading lower this Monday, at €302.60, down 0.59% from Friday's close of €304.40. This downward movement continues a challenging week: the stock has lost 4.75% over the past seven days. At the heart of today's configuration, two signals converge in the same direction. In the morning session, the price broke through the support threshold at €301.00, before hitting a one-month low at €299.20. These two signals are not contradictory; they overlap to create a continuous selling pressure from the levels close to €346 reached in mid-February. The break of the support, a key technical level, is confirmed by the simultaneous breach of the monthly low point, enhancing the clarity of the movement. The RSI stands at 24, indicating a marked oversold zone. The MACD also displays a negative configuration, with a signal/line differential of -4.00, consistent with the recent dynamics of the stock.
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From a medium-term technical perspective, the current price is significantly below the 50-day moving average, which stands at €319.52. The gap, more than €17, illustrates the magnitude of the decline that began since the end of February. The 200-day moving average, at €295.83, now serves as the next reference level in case the downward movement continues. Regarding analysts' views, two revisions were published today. UBS maintains a neutral rating on the stock while raising its price target from €330.00 to €340.00. Jefferies keeps a buy recommendation (accumulate) but lowers its price target from €360.00 to €350.00. These two opposite movements, one raising and the other lowering the target, reflect distinct readings of the case among analysts following the stock. The next financial meeting is scheduled for April 23, 2026, when the first-quarter results will be published.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
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