Safran's Stock Falls 8.58% in a Week Despite Raised Target to €360
Safran's stock significantly declined this Thursday midday, dropping 2.71% to €280.30 amidst widespread tension on European markets. The CAC 40 is down by 0.99% during the session, while the SBF 120 loses 1.01%. The weekly decline in the stock now stands at 8.58%, bringing the three-month fall to 6.35%.
Safran's stock price is now below all its key moving averages: the 50-day moving average at €315.83, and the 200-day at €297.07, both significantly above the current level. This positioning reflects a bearish momentum that has intensified in recent weeks. More notably, this Thursday, the stock is hovering around its identified support level at €281.60, a technical level which the price temporarily breached, dropping to €280.30. A sustained break below this threshold could pave the way for further decline towards the lower Bollinger band at €274.39. The RSI, at 35, is approaching the oversold territory (below 30), indicating strong selling pressure, although not yet signaling an imminent reversal. In the sector, other major European industrial stocks are showing comparable declines during the session: Airbus is down 2.53% and Schneider Electric is down 2.42%.
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Despite the current downturn, investment bank Berenberg raised its price target on Safran from €350 to €360 on Monday, March 24, while maintaining a buy recommendation. At the current price of €280.30, this target implies a potential revaluation of about 28%, a significant gap that reflects the analyst's confidence in the aerospace and defense group's fundamentals over the medium term. Regarding the schedule, investors are looking forward to the release of the first quarter 2026 results, scheduled for April 23, followed by the annual general meeting set for May 21. These events will be important milestones to assess the operational trajectory of the group, especially in an environment characterized by rising oil prices — with Brent crude at around $106 per barrel this Thursday — and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite everything, the stock maintains a positive performance of 10.4% over the year, reminding of the significant bullish run that preceded the current correction phase.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
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