Société Générale share breaks through the €66.08 floor that had held for weeks
The bank at La Défense extends its decline in early afternoon, despite a Paris index oriented upwards. It ranks at the bottom of the CAC 40 and has broken a technical threshold during the session. This decline adds to that of recent weeks and widens the gap with its moving averages.
The €66.08 support gives way as the CAC 40 advances
Société Générale falls 1.42% to €65.14 and loses nearly 7% over the week, while the CAC 40 gains 0.49% at the same time. During the session, the share broke through its support at €66.08, a level that had served as a floor for several weeks, and remains below it. The share also weighs on the 20-day moving average: the price is 10.18% below the MA20, situated at €72.52, and 9.70% below the MA200, at €72.14. The RSI at 30 is at the limit of the oversold zone, consistent with a decline of 11% over one month.
The bond market context weighs on the sector. The 10-year OAT stands at 4.90% according to the latest Bank of France reading (October 1st), its highest level since 2002 for this series, with a spread of 1.30 points against the Bund. The government has also presented the 2027 budget bill, which estimates a deficit of 5% of GDP and whose adoption remains uncertain in the National Assembly. Domestic securities sensitive to rates are evolving in this climate of tension over French debt.
A share buyback and a dividend on the calendar, following record half-year results
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Upon publication of the first half of 2026, on July 30th, the bank had announced a record Group net income of €3.5 billion (+13.9% year-on-year) and a ROTE of 12%. It had also raised its 2026 ROTE target to approximately 11%, adding an interim dividend up 23% and an exceptional share buyback of €1.5 billion. This program, announced on August 10th, is executed at approximately 84% as of September 25th, or €1.3 billion already repurchased.
At the same time, Corporate and Investment Banking revenues declined by 1.3% for the half-year and the cost of risk increased by 6.6%, to €745 million. On the basis of expected earnings per share, the share is valued at approximately 8.2 times the current year's earnings, according to the consensus of surveyed analysts. The dividend ex-date is set for October 5th, Monday, and payment for October 7th: the price will then mechanically display the effect of the coupon.
« Revenus du Groupe de 21,4 Md EUR sur 9M-26, en hausse de +4,1% vs. 9M-25, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 >+2% » ; « ROTE de 12,3% sur 9M-26, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 à ~11% » ; « Coût du risque de 27 pb sur 9M-26, dans la fourchette cible de 25 à 30 pb pour 2026 »
Risks mentioned
Perspectives négatives de Moody's sur la notation long terme (dette senior préférée) « A1 »
Baisse du résultat des ventes de voitures d'occasion (-12,2% revenus Ayvens vs T3-25)
Baisse des revenus Taux Crédit et Change (-20,6% vs T3-25) sous l'effet d'une baisse d'activité sur les taux
Opportunities identified
BoursoBank atteint 9,4 millions clients avec une contribution annuelle attendue supérieure à 300 M€
Forte dynamique des Actions +45,9% au T3-26 atteignant un record de plus de 1,2 Md€
Global Banking & Advisory maintient une solide dynamique de croissance portée par les financements structurés
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Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
