Société Générale shares bounce back to CAC 40 top but struggle against its 20-day moving average
Two analyst reports published yesterday by Oddo BHF and Jefferies paint radically different scenarios for the bank headquartered in La Défense, as the ECB raised its rates on Thursday to 2.50%. The stock ranks among the strongest gainers in the CAC 40 at the end of the week, with the Paris index up nearly 1% during the session.
Oddo BHF lowers target to €82 while Jefferies raises it to €103 against ECB backdrop
The two revisions published Thursday by Oddo BHF and Jefferies illustrate a sharp disagreement over Société Générale's valuation. Oddo BHF cut its target from €85 to €82, maintaining a neutral rating on the stock, which implies an upside potential of around 10% compared to the current price. Conversely, Jefferies raised its target from €96 to €103, while maintaining its buy recommendation, representing a gap of nearly 38% from the session level. This divergence takes place in a context of shifting monetary policy: the ECB raised its main benchmark rate to 2.50% on Thursday, the second increase of the year, in an environment of inflation supported by surging energy prices.
For a commercial bank like Société Générale, higher rates have historically had a direct impact on net interest income, although transmission to margins remains gradual. The 3-month Euribor, a barometer of interbank refinancing conditions, stands at 2.51% based on the latest available data. According to the consensus of analysts tracked, the stock trades at approximately 9.5 times expected earnings for the current fiscal year and 8.3 times for the following year, with earnings per share growth projected at nearly 14% year-over-year.
Technical bounce below the 20-day moving average, with support at €71.03 in the background
The stock is up 1.26% to €74.81 during the session, following a decline of nearly 11% over the past month that had pushed the price below both its short and medium-term moving averages. The 20-day MA at €75.76 and the 50-day MA at €77.31 now constitute two obstacles to recovery, with the price remaining respectively 1.25% and 3.23% below these levels. Only the 200-day MA at €71.39 lies below the current price, offering a cushion of approximately 4.8%.
The RSI at 41 remains in neutral territory, showing no signal of bullish exhaustion or oversold conditions. Over one year, the stock is still up 34%, which tempers the reading of recent difficulties. The support level at €71.03, which was broken lower at the end of August before a rebound, remains the key reference level in case of renewed selling pressure.
