Société Générale stock falls over 1% and approaches oversold territory
Société Générale is facing pressure on Wednesday, in a CAC 40 that is losing some ground. The bank finds itself at the heart of an unexpected arbitrage between two major brokerage houses that simultaneously publish opposing views on the stock, one raising its target, the other moving to neutral.
Morgan Stanley raises its target to €94, Goldman Sachs downgrades its opinion on the stock
On Wednesday, two significant revisions collide on Société Générale. Morgan Stanley raises its price target from €89 to €94, confirming its "overweight" opinion — which represents an upside potential of around 30% compared to the current price. At the same time, Goldman Sachs adopts a much more cautious stance: the American bank lowers its target from €90.75 to €80.50 and downgrades its opinion from "buy" to "neutral", which nonetheless remains more than 11% above the current price.
Two radically different interpretations then, which fuel uncertainty around analyst consensus on the stock. Based on expected earnings per share, the stock is currently trading at around 9.1 times the earnings of the current fiscal year and 8.0 times those of the following fiscal year, with earnings per share growth projected at +13.2% between the two fiscal years according to the consensus of surveyed analysts.
A technical decline that brings the stock below its key moving averages, in a tense geopolitical context
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The stock falls 1.21% to €72.40 in trading, consolidating a correction movement that began from the multi-year high reached in early August. The bank now finds itself below its 20-day moving average (€78.72, down 8.03%) and its 50-day moving average (€77.69, down 6.81%), two thresholds that had served as floors during previous correction phases. Only the 200-day moving average at €70.89 remains below the current price, offering a safety net at approximately 2% lower.
The RSI at 35 signals a configuration close to oversold territory, consistent with last week's note that showed it at 24 — the partial rebound since then has not been enough to normalize the momentum. The support level at €71.03 constitutes the next concrete threshold to monitor. Moreover, the bank is historically sensitive to the eurozone's key interest rates: the 3-month Euribor stands at 2.513%, up 0.48 points over a year, in a context where military escalation between Iran and the United States is pushing the VIX up more than 10% in trading, a volatility signal that weighs on the entire financial sector.
« Revenus du Groupe de 21,4 Md EUR sur 9M-26, en hausse de +4,1% vs. 9M-25, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 >+2% » ; « ROTE de 12,3% sur 9M-26, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 à ~11% » ; « Coût du risque de 27 pb sur 9M-26, dans la fourchette cible de 25 à 30 pb pour 2026 »
Risks mentioned
Perspectives négatives de Moody's sur la notation long terme (dette senior préférée) « A1 »
Baisse du résultat des ventes de voitures d'occasion (-12,2% revenus Ayvens vs T3-25)
Baisse des revenus Taux Crédit et Change (-20,6% vs T3-25) sous l'effet d'une baisse d'activité sur les taux
Opportunities identified
BoursoBank atteint 9,4 millions clients avec une contribution annuelle attendue supérieure à 300 M€
Forte dynamique des Actions +45,9% au T3-26 atteignant un record de plus de 1,2 Md€
Global Banking & Advisory maintient une solide dynamique de croissance portée par les financements structurés
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