Société Générale stock slips below its moving averages, -13% in one month
Société Générale continues its decline this Wednesday in a CAC 40 heavily oriented downwards, following JP Morgan's downgrade the day before. The bank finds itself in a delicate technical configuration, below its two main short and medium-term moving averages, while Deutsche Bank publishes a more optimistic view on the stock today.
Deutsche Bank raises its target to €86 the day following JP Morgan's downgrade to neutral
Two analyst opinions clash at the beginning of this week on Société Générale. Deutsche Bank raised its price target on Wednesday from €81 to €86, while maintaining a buy rating, representing a premium of nearly 17.5% compared to the current price. Conversely, JP Morgan downgraded its view the day before, moving from overweight to neutral, while reducing its target from €87 to €81.
This gap between the two investment banks illustrates the division of the analyst consensus on the stock, split between positive momentum over one year (the stock still gains 36% over twelve months) and the correction of recent weeks (-12.83% over one month). According to the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock is currently trading at approximately 9.3 times the earnings of the current fiscal year and 8.1 times those of the following year, with expected earnings per share growth of 14.1% from one fiscal year to the next.
A price under pressure between MA20 and MA50, with support at €71.03 in sight
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In trading this Wednesday, the stock falls 1.6% to €73.15, in a Paris market that itself declines 1.82%. The bank is trading below its MA20 (€76.73, gap of -4.67%) and its MA50 (€77.45, gap of -5.55%), two levels that now constitute nearby resistances. Only the MA200, at €71.23, remains below the current price, offering limited cushioning above the support identified at €71.03. The RSI at 42 remains in neutral territory but oriented downwards, consistent with the monthly decline of nearly 13%.
This technical context fits within an environment of long-term rates under pressure: the 10-year Bund yield is flirting with its highest levels in fifteen years, which mechanically weighs on the valuation of banking assets in the eurozone. The bank is moreover historically sensitive to corporate lending rates, and the 3-month Euribor stands at 2.513% on August 1st, up nearly 0.5 points over one year. The support at €71.03 represents the level to watch if the decline continues.
« Revenus du Groupe de 21,4 Md EUR sur 9M-26, en hausse de +4,1% vs. 9M-25, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 >+2% » ; « ROTE de 12,3% sur 9M-26, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 à ~11% » ; « Coût du risque de 27 pb sur 9M-26, dans la fourchette cible de 25 à 30 pb pour 2026 »
Risks mentioned
Perspectives négatives de Moody's sur la notation long terme (dette senior préférée) « A1 »
Baisse du résultat des ventes de voitures d'occasion (-12,2% revenus Ayvens vs T3-25)
Baisse des revenus Taux Crédit et Change (-20,6% vs T3-25) sous l'effet d'une baisse d'activité sur les taux
Opportunities identified
BoursoBank atteint 9,4 millions clients avec une contribution annuelle attendue supérieure à 300 M€
Forte dynamique des Actions +45,9% au T3-26 atteignant un record de plus de 1,2 Md€
Global Banking & Advisory maintient une solide dynamique de croissance portée par les financements structurés
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
