At the Paris Stock Exchange, Thales has dropped 1.5% by late morning, marking the most pronounced decline in the CAC 40 this Monday, December 29. The stock is trading at 225.60 euros, down 1.31% from Friday's close of 228.60 euros, in limited trading volumes representing 0.02% of the capital. This movement is part of a tense context for the entire European defense sector, after Donald Trump expressed strong optimism for a quick resolution to the Ukrainian conflict. The sector has been booming since the beginning of the year, although in the second half of 2025, discussions around a potential peace in Ukraine have slowed their rally. Over three months, the stock has lost 13%, a decline that contrasts with the remarkable annual performance of 63.42%. The price is now below its 50-day moving average set at 237 euros and its 200-day moving average at 244.20 euros, indicating a weakened short-term technical trend.
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In a cautious market environment, Thales announced this very Monday that it has won a major contract for the design, development, and delivery of the next generation of portable autonomous command centers for the Royal Navy. The initial investment of 10 million pounds sterling marks the first phase of a program that could reach up to 100 million pounds sterling, aiming to revolutionize maritime mine warfare capabilities through artificial intelligence. Technically, the stock is trading above its support threshold at 219.50 euros but remains under pressure, as the RSI at 57 indicates a still neutral positioning without excess signal. The stock has a theoretical upside potential of 15% according to Morgan Stanley's target set at 260 euros within a recommendation to align in November. However, the proximity of the resistance threshold at 243.70 euros remains a significant technical obstacle to monitor for any significant rebound.
Net income: 2 005 millions d'euros (Résultat Net Ajusté, part du Groupe)
Free cash flow: 2 577 millions d'euros
Net debt: -1 618 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,90 €
Payout ratio: 40 %
Guidance from the release
2025 a été une très bonne année avec des commandes records et une croissance du chiffre d’affaires, démontrant l’excellence opérationnelle du Groupe.
Communiqué indiquant des commandes records, un chiffre d’affaires en hausse et une rentabilité améliorée en 2025, avec des perspectives 2026 positives et un dividende soutenu.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d'euros en 2026
Expected EBITDA: Non précisé publiquement
Expected net income: Non précisé publiquement
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Thales vise un book-to-bill supérieur à 1 et une croissance organique du chiffre d’affaires entre 6 % et 7 %, correspondant à un chiffre d’affaires entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d’euros, et une marge d’EBIT Ajusté entre 12,6 % et 12,8 %; le taux de conversion en cash devrait se situer entre 95 % et 100 %.
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