Thales Shares Drop 3% and Break Through Key Technical Supports
Thales experiences a significant decline this Thursday, March 5, dropping over 3% to 243.10 euros amid a context marked by two analyst recommendation revisions published during the day. The stock is trading below its main short-term moving averages, after having published its annual results earlier in the week.
The session is notably marked by the decision of JP Morgan to downgrade its recommendation on Thales from 'overweight' to 'neutral', while maintaining a price target of 275 euros, indicating a potential upside of about 13% from the current level. Concurrently, Intesa Sanpaolo has significantly raised its target from 230 to 260 euros, changing its recommendation from 'underperform' to 'neutral'. These two movements converge towards a cautious stance on the file, as the group had unveiled its annual accounts last Tuesday. Over one year, the stock maintains a gain of 6.6%, but it has shown a decline of more than 4% over the last seven days.
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From a technical standpoint, today's session is significant: Thales' share price, at 243.10 euros, has broken the support identified at 245.20 euros, a level that had supported trading in recent weeks. The stock is now trading below its 50-day moving average (252.25 euros) as well as its 20-day moving average (252.94 euros), indicating short-term bearish pressure. The 200-day moving average, located at 245.82 euros, has also been crossed downwards. The RSI, at 55, remains in the neutral zone and does not indicate overselling, suggesting that the decline has not yet reached a significant technical excess. The lower Bollinger band, positioned at 242.55 euros, now represents the next threshold to watch if the movement continues. The tense geopolitical context in the Middle East, with the oil spike linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has not favored the stock despite Thales' exposure to the defense sector.
Net income: 2 005 millions d'euros (Résultat Net Ajusté, part du Groupe)
Free cash flow: 2 577 millions d'euros
Net debt: -1 618 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,90 €
Payout ratio: 40 %
Guidance from the release
2025 a été une très bonne année avec des commandes records et une croissance du chiffre d’affaires, démontrant l’excellence opérationnelle du Groupe.
Communiqué indiquant des commandes records, un chiffre d’affaires en hausse et une rentabilité améliorée en 2025, avec des perspectives 2026 positives et un dividende soutenu.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d'euros en 2026
Expected EBITDA: Non précisé publiquement
Expected net income: Non précisé publiquement
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Thales vise un book-to-bill supérieur à 1 et une croissance organique du chiffre d’affaires entre 6 % et 7 %, correspondant à un chiffre d’affaires entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d’euros, et une marge d’EBIT Ajusté entre 12,6 % et 12,8 %; le taux de conversion en cash devrait se situer entre 95 % et 100 %.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
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