Vallourec stock rebounds 2.5%, leading the SBF 120 below its 200-day moving average
After a difficult month and a decline of over 25% in three months, Vallourec regains some momentum on Tuesday, posting gains well above a nearly stable CAC 40. Two analyst opinions published in recent days fuel the session, while Brent plunges over 7% in parallel, underscoring the seamless tube manufacturer's sensitivity to oil market conditions.
Two analyst revisions paint a contrasted picture following half-year results
Morgan Stanley adjusted its opinion on Tuesday, retaining a market-weight rating with a price target reduced from €22.30 to €21.50, representing a premium of approximately 12% relative to the current price. Goldman Sachs had carried out its own revision the previous day, lowering its target from €29.40 to €28.30, while maintaining its buy rating, which implies upside potential of nearly 47% from current levels. These two revisions followed the publication of half-year results on July 30, which revealed a 9% decline in gross operating profit in the second quarter, to $190 million, due to a 15% contraction in volumes. While profitability per ton in the Tubes segment increased by 31% to $722/t, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on international delivery times.
At the time of this publication, the stock fell 3.5%. For the second half, the group communicated an EBITDA range between $170 and $210 million, anticipating rising volumes and prices in North America, although RBE per ton is expected to decline due to a less favorable product mix. An exceptional interim dividend of €2.05 per share is to be paid on August 5, 2026.
A session rebound that encounters a technical picture still under pressure
Vallourec gains 2.59% to €19.21 in trading, ranking among the strongest gains in the SBF 120 within a practically stable index (-0.02%). This rebound occurs while the technical configuration remains deteriorated. The stock is trading below its three moving averages: the 20-day MA at €20.94, the 50-day MA at €22.06 and the 200-day MA at €19.79, the latter representing the closest resistance, less than 3% above the price. The RSI at 29 signals a marked oversold configuration, consistent with the decline of over 25% recorded over the quarter.
The immediate support at €18.73 had been approached during the previous session, which reinforces the significance of Tuesday's rebound. From a fundamentals perspective, the group's liquidity position reached $2.0 billion on June 30, 2026 and approximately €307 million in proceeds had been collected in early July following the exercise of subscription warrants. The next level to watch remains the 200-day MA at €19.79, the first technical hurdle on the path to price normalization.
