Brent at $115: Oil has jumped 10% since Friday

Military Escalation in the Middle East Behind the Shock

The surge in Brent prices stems directly from the rapid deterioration of the security situation in the Middle East. The Houthis, who have already been involved in disruptions to maritime traffic in the Red Sea in recent years, have crossed a new threshold by officially entering the war as part of a broader regional conflict. At the same time, Washington announced the deployment of additional troops to the area, significantly bolstering Western military presence.

This dual escalation—on the Iranian side through proxies and on the American side through a force projection—raises fears of a widespread conflagration in the region. The Middle East accounts for about a third of global oil production and is home to strategic maritime choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Any credible threat to these infrastructures automatically leads to an immediate reassessment of the geopolitical risk premium factored into the price of a barrel.

Energy Markets Under High Tension Despite Attempts to Ease Tensions

In light of the significant upward movement, investors are closely monitoring every political signal that could alter market trends. Donald Trump has posted several messages on his network, Truth Social, mentioning a potential diplomatic easing. However, these statements have not had the calming effect anticipated: at the time of publication, Brent crude remains firmly above the $115 mark.

This discrepancy between political communication and market reaction illustrates a well-documented phenomenon in energy finance. When physical fundamentals—such as concrete threats to supply routes, verifiable military movements, and risks of production disruption—contradict calming rhetoric, operators consistently prioritize tangible data. Nervousness remains high in the futures markets for crude oil, natural gas, and refined products.

Concrete Implications for Oil-Importing Economies

A barrel continually priced above $115 is a significant inflationary pressure factor for economies reliant on hydrocarbon imports. Europe, Japan, India, and many emerging countries are among the most exposed regions. The increase in crude prices affects the entire energy value chain: fuels, freight transport, electricity production, and industry.

According to an IMF study from March 2026, a persistent 10% rise in oil prices could add approximately 0.4 percentage points to global inflation. The exact effect depends particularly on the duration of the shock and the macroeconomic and monetary conditions.

Global Supply: Key Vulnerability Areas to Monitor

The current crisis highlights the structural fragility of the global energy system in the face of geopolitical shocks. Around 20% of the world's traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions caused by the Houthis in the Red Sea had already forced some maritime traffic to bypass Africa in 2024, increasing transport times and costs.

The strategic oil reserves held by member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) serve as a safety net, but releasing them remains a significant political decision, typically reserved for severe supply issues rather than price management objectives. The coming hours and days will be crucial in determining whether the geopolitical risk stabilizes or if new military developments further fuel the upward spiral in energy markets.