Brent skyrockets to $115 following Iranian attack on the world's largest LNG terminal

Ras Laffan: Epicenter of the Energy Earthquake

Ras Laffan, located on the northeastern coast of Qatar, is the global hub for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The country ranks among the top LNG exporters worldwide, supplying both European terminals and Asian markets. The Iranian strike on this infrastructure immediately sent shockwaves through the gas markets: European gas prices surged by 35% in the hours following the attack.

The magnitude of the response is explained by the central role Ras Laffan plays in the global supply chain. Any disruption, even temporary, to this site jeopardizes the security of LNG flows to Europe, which have already been weakened by reduced Russian deliveries in recent years. The event starkly highlights the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure concentrated in the Gulf region.

Anatomy of a Surge: Brent Up 60% in Three Weeks

At the end of February 2026, Brent crude was still hovering around $70 per barrel. Within three weeks, the price surged by over 60%, briefly reaching $115 on March 19. This dramatic increase occurred amidst simultaneous strikes: in addition to Ras Laffan, Saudi Arabia was targeted by attacks near the Red Sea, threatening another crucial link in the global oil transit chain.

The political response further fueled the upward spiral. Riyadh threatened Iran with direct military retaliation. Donald Trump, for his part, warned that the United States could destroy Iran's South Pars gas field—one of the largest in the world, already hit by Israel—if Iran launched another attack on energy infrastructure. This verbal escalation among three major powers triggered a geopolitical risk premium rarely seen in the oil and gas markets.

Intersecting Threats and Risk of Conflict Expansion

The current situation in the Middle East is characterized by the number of actors involved and the strategic nature of the targets being hit. Strikes are no longer limited to conventional combat zones; they are directly targeting hydrocarbon production and export infrastructure, essentially the nerve center of the global energy economy.

The South Pars gas field alone holds the largest natural gas reserve on the planet. The American threat to destroy it introduces an additional layer of uncertainty: such a strike would not only impact Iranian production but could potentially destabilize the entire regional gas balance. The escalation of these crossed threats—Iran against Qatar, Saudi Arabia against Iran, the United States against Iran—mechanically increases the likelihood of a new incident that could further disrupt the global supply.

Importing Economies: Exposure to a Lasting Supply Shock

The Gulf region accounts for about one-third of the world's oil production and an increasing share of LNG exports. Economies heavily reliant on hydrocarbon imports—such as those in Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Asia—find themselves at the forefront of this price surge. A sustained increase in oil prices above $100 per barrel mechanically raises the energy costs for importing countries, strains trade balances, and fuels inflationary pressures.

For Europe, the situation is especially sensitive because the continent has significantly increased its dependence on Qatari and American LNG following the disruption of Russian supplies. A prolonged blockade of exports from Ras Laffan would force European buyers to turn to an already tight spot market, further driving up prices. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil transits, remains a strategic chokepoint where any disruption would have immediate consequences on the entire global energy supply chain.