ECB Key Rate: Stable at 2.15% in May, Analysts Anticipate Increase in June

ECB Refinance Rate: A Key Tool of Monetary Policy

In May 2026, the European Central Bank keeps its main refinancing rate (refi) at 2.15%, unchanged from the previous month. Over one year, this rate has decreased by 18.87%, compared to 2.65% at the same period in 2025.

The refi rate is the rate at which commercial banks can borrow short-term from the ECB; it is the primary tool of the eurozone's monetary policy and directly influences the cost of credit for households and businesses.

Data published by the ECB shows marked stability in recent months, with the rate remaining anchored at 2.15% across all recent available observations. Over the past twelve months, there has been only one rate cut, indicating a pause phase following a monetary easing cycle that began in 2025.

An Increase Now Considered by Part of the Market

The ECB's next monetary policy decision is expected on June 30, 2026, according to the schedule outlined by the Banque de France. The likelihood of a rate hike has become more probable since the April meeting: Reuters reported at the end of April that 44 out of 85 economists surveyed anticipated a rate increase as early as June, while several ECB officials have since taken a firmer stance in response to inflationary pressures. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board, notably stated on May 26 that the ECB should raise its rates in June, even if the conflict in Iran eases, due to the ongoing energy shock.