French Growth: An Unexpected Rebound Amid Uncertain Conditions
Defying widespread pessimism, French growth accelerated to +0.5% in the third quarter of 2025, according to Insee. Driven by the aerospace sector and exports, this momentum highlights the resilience of the French economy, despite a tense political climate and the ongoing weakness in household consumption.
The Restarting Industry: Aerospace Takes Off
The often criticized French industrial sector is finally showing signs of recovery. Total production of goods and services increased by 0.8% in Q3, compared to 0.3% in the previous quarter. The manufacturing industry surged by 1.1%, driven by energy and transport equipment, while market services grew by 0.7%.
The refineries, after a sluggish spring, rebounded by 10.6%, and the aerospace sector confirmed its strategic role: exports of transport equipment rose by 8.9%, following a decline of 2.3% in the previous quarter.
"Aerospace remains the showcase of France's industrial sector, » notes Philippe Crevel, director of the Cercle de l’Épargne. « Today, it is the main driver of exports and growth, as global demand picks up."
The chemical and pharmaceutical industries also supported growth, while the agri-food sector continues to struggle (down 1.3%), hindered by rising costs and declining consumption.
Consumption Still Sluggish
This is the downside of the quarter: household consumption remains sluggish at +0.1%, held back by caution in the face of political tensions and stagnant purchasing power. The French continue to maintain a high savings rate, around 18.8% of gross disposable income, symbolizing persistent precautionary behavior.
Purchases of goods are stagnant at 0%, with food consumption declining by 1%, while energy expenses have slightly increased by 1.3%, driven by a cooler early autumn. In services, the contrasts are notable: information-communications at +1.6% and business services at +1.2% are supporting activity, but accommodations-restaurants at -0.5% and transportation at -0.6% are lagging.
"The consumption slowdown is explained by the political climate and a deterioration in economic sentiment, » notes Philippe Crevel. « Households have the instinct to wait rather than spend."
This slowdown in domestic momentum highlights the fragility of the French model: an economy that withstands through its industry but struggles to stimulate internal demand.
Modest yet Resilient Growth
With a 0.5% rise for the quarter and an expected 0.8% for the year, France remains on a moderate but stable path. The economy shows a remarkable ability to adapt, driven by investment, exports, and sector diversification.
“Despite a chaotic international environment and strained public finances, France avoids the stagnation scenario,” summarizes Philippe Crevel. “However, growth remains fragile, reliant on very specific sectors.”
The challenge remains domestic demand: without a resurgence in consumption, the recovery will remain technical rather than social. The French economy has demonstrated its ability to rebound—though not yet to take off.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
