Oil: Barrel prices drop 10% following Trump's surprise statement on Iran

A Sharp Correction Follows a Historic Peak

On Monday, oil prices surged by 30% in a matter of hours, surpassing $100 per barrel. The spike was directly linked to the military escalation in the Middle East and the paralysis of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass.

However, on Tuesday, the trend sharply reversed. As soon as trading began in Asia, prices dropped by nearly 10%. The WTI, the US benchmark, fell to $86.8, while Brent, the global benchmark, declined by 10% to around $91. This type of rapid correction, after a speculative surge fueled by fear, is not unprecedented. It echoes the dynamics seen during previous oil shocks, where prices react exaggeratedly to calming signals after having accounted for a worst-case scenario.

Trump Shakes Up the Situation: Strait of Hormuz, Sanctions, and End of Conflict

The catalyst for this turnaround is an unexpected statement from Donald Trump, made Monday evening during an interview with CBS. The US president claimed that the war with Iran was « almost » over. Art Hogan, an analyst at B. Riley Wealth Management, suggested that these comments « completely changed the game, » highlighting that the Trump administration « has reached a point where they are considering the cost » of the conflict, as well as the impact on the markets.

Donald Trump also mentioned the possibility of « taking control » of the Strait of Hormuz to restore global oil transit and announced the lifting of certain oil sanctions « to reduce prices. » These combined statements were enough to shift investor sentiment, even though their concrete implementation remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the G7 countries declared themselves « ready » to tap into their strategic oil reserves to mitigate the surge in prices, though they did not initiate this measure immediately. Chris Weston, an analyst at Pepperstone, noted that this « conjunction was enough to spark hope for some normalization of supply and logistics."

Asian markets rebound, dollar steady, and gold on the rise

The decline in oil prices had an immediate impact on Asian financial markets, which are particularly sensitive to changes in energy prices. Seoul's Kospi jumped 5.35% on Tuesday after nearly a 6% drop the previous day. Tokyo's Nikkei rose by 2.88% to 54,248 points, partially recovering from a 5% fall on Monday. The stock exchanges in Taipei (+2%), Sydney (+1%), and Hong Kong (+2%) also recorded significant rebounds.

Asian economies, heavily reliant on Gulf hydrocarbons for their energy supply, are structurally sensitive to changes in oil barrel prices and the logistical situation in the Strait of Hormuz. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar stabilized at 157.58 yen, supported by expectations of prolonged high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve amid an inflationary environment. Meanwhile, gold bounced back by 0.74% to $5,179 per ounce after a sharp decline on Monday, triggered by massive sales intended to cover margin calls on oil and offset stock market losses.

Why Volatility Remains the Central Scenario

Despite signs of easing, uncertainty remains high. Chris Weston cautions, « Even though the most intense tensions have subsided, markets are still factoring in a significant degree of uncertainty and risk. » Volatility is expected to remain « substantial and persistent, » with movements whose implications will « not always be clear » in the short term.

This sequence illustrates a fundamental principle of the oil market: prices do not reflect just physical supply and demand but also the perception of geopolitical risk. When this risk is reassessed — either upward or downward — price adjustments can be disproportionately large. Analysts at Standard Chartered also observe that market focus is now shifting to inflation prospects, temporarily sidelining US labor market data. The future path of Fed rates, influenced by energy price trends, remains a crucial factor for all asset classes.