Oil Surpasses $100: IEA Warns of the Worst Oil Crisis in Recent History

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: The Geopolitical Turning Point

Price developments are closely linked to the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. At its narrowest point, this maritime corridor is only about thirty kilometers wide, yet it plays a crucial role in the global oil trade: roughly one-fifth of the world's oil flows through it daily.

Tensions have escalated following Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Ali Khamenei's son, who was killed on the first day of the offensive, stated in his inaugural public message that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. According to him, this measure aims to increase pressure on the United States and Israel. He also called on regional states to end the presence of US military bases on their soil.

Simultaneously, Iran has intensified actions against energy and maritime targets in the Gulf, particularly targeting ships and oil installations.

This escalation is fueling investor concerns about the safety of maritime transport in the region. According to Karen Georges, equity manager at Ecofi, this issue has now become a central factor in market developments.

In the United States, Donald Trump asserted that the priority remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if it leads to an increase in oil prices. This statement contrasts with remarks previously made by the American president, who had suggested that the conflict could end quickly. For investors, this change in tone reinforces the idea of a confrontation that may be prolonged.

10 Million Barrels Lost Per Day: The Unprecedented Scale of the Supply Shock

Data released by the IEA highlights the extent of the shock hitting the oil market. Production from Gulf countries has reportedly fallen by at least 10 million barrels per day, roughly 7.5% of global supply. The impact is even more pronounced on international exports, as a significant portion of oil intended for global trade comes from this region.
In response to this situation, IEA members have announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves.

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