Strait of Hormuz: One-Fifth of Global Oil Hinges on Negotiations Following New U.S. Strikes

An Energy Bottleneck at the Center of Discussions

The war in the Middle East has significantly disrupted the global economy, largely due to the near-blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic passage usually handles about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas, making it one of the critical points for global energy supply.

Reopening the strait is among the priority topics in talks between Washington and Tehran. The issue extends beyond the bilateral framework: any slowdown in traffic in the area directly impacts crude oil and LNG prices, and therefore the supply costs for importing economies, including France and the eurozone.

The oil shock linked to the conflict is already weighing on European economic activity, as demonstrated by the latest S&P Global PMI index dedicated to the French private sector. This morning, Brent crude fell below 100 dollars yesterday, but the situation remains very tense.

U.S. Strikes, Iranian Verbal Retaliation: A Fragile Balance

The United States conducted new strikes on Iranian territory overnight from Monday to Tuesday, the first in several weeks. According to Centcom, the operation targeted missile launch sites and Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines. The U.S. military claims to act with restraint during the ceasefire and presents the action as limited to neutralizing operational threats.

Tehran has not officially confirmed the strikes. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei responded on state television by emphasizing the U.S.'s loss of influence in the Gulf, a message aimed at showing that Iran does not see itself as weakened.

The ceasefire agreed upon on April 8th initiated a phase of stalemates, threats, and then a resumption of dialogue. Recent days had hinted at possible progress, with Donald Trump mentioning an imminent compromise. However, the escalation announced by Israel in Lebanon, followed by the U.S. strikes, has dampened expectations for de-escalation.

Diplomatic Channels Remain Open

After the announcement of the strikes, global markets adopted a more cautious stance. European stock exchanges opened without clear direction, while oil prices briefly rose.

Diplomatic channels, however, remain active. Senior Iranian officials, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, traveled to Doha on Monday. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson indicated that conclusions had been reached on a large portion of the issues, without mentioning any imminent agreement. On the American side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio specified that discussions were still focusing on the wording of the initial text and would take a few days, while leaving open the possibility of failure.

Donald Trump also linked the negotiations to an extension of the Abraham Accords, stating in a message published on social media Monday that several Muslim-majority countries should at least sign them simultaneously. Beijing, for its part, called on the concerned parties to respect their commitments and continue discussions, in an appeal for stability. These multiple lines of negotiation will determine the short-term trajectory of crude and LNG prices, and more broadly, global economic conditions.