US-Iran Ceasefire: Brent Falls to $93, Gold Rises Again

Oil: A Significant But Conditional Easing

The Brent contract for July 2026 delivery falls to around $93 per barrel, down 1.1% on May 29th and 10.5% for the week. The WTI follows the same trend, at $87.64 (-1.4% for the session, -9.2% for the week), marking its steepest weekly decline since mid-April.

The decline is directly linked to the progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States. The memorandum of understanding would foresee a gradual easing of restrictions on maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which before the war about 20% of the world's traded oil and LNG flowed. At this stage, actual flows remain well below pre-crisis levels, and the agreement has not been formally ratified by the two capitals.

However, some analysts point out that upstream production was significantly reduced during the conflict: even if the strait reopens, the increase in supply would be gradual. This sequence thus extends the phase of high oil price volatility already observed last week when Brent lost nearly 5% before bouncing back approximately 3% in twenty-four hours.

Gold and Dollar: Yellow Metal Rebounds Amid Partial De-escalation

Spot gold rebounds by about 1.1% during the session, around $4,525 an ounce, with an increase of nearly 3%. The movement is supported by both easing oil prices and a slight decline in the dollar, a logical consequence of an expectation of geopolitical calm.

The situation appears paradoxical: a ceasefire should theoretically weigh down on safe-haven assets. However, the unfinished nature of the agreement, coupled with the persistence of regional tensions, maintains a structural demand for the precious metal.

The implicit message from the markets is one of partial and reversible normalization. The decline in Brent is accompanied by sustained hedges on gold, indicating that operators are not ruling out a return of tension if negotiations fail.

US: Growth Revised Downward, Inflation Still Under Energy Pressure

On the macroeconomic front, the second estimate of the U.S. GDP for the first quarter of 2026, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, shows a 1.6% annualized rate, compared to the initially announced 2.0%. This revision confirms a more pronounced slowdown than anticipated at the beginning of the year, with the BEA reminding that these estimates are subject to adjustments in upcoming releases.

At the same time, the April PCE inflation reaches 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% in March. This is the highest annual increase since May 2023, mainly driven by the energy component amidst the conflict with Iran. The monthly variation is +0.4%, after +0.7% in March, indicating a relative moderation that does not suffice to allay concerns about the persistence of the shock.

This combination (downward revised growth and the highest inflation in two years) explains the increasingly hawkish stance of several Fed officials, following recent comments by Neel Kashkari about a global inflationary shock linked to the war in Iran. In Europe, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator stands at 93.5 in May, compared to 93.2 in April, a slight improvement that remains below the long-term average and is consistent with sluggish growth, without prejudging the exact GDP profile of the eurozone.