BNP Paribas Raises Profitability Targets for its Commercial Bank in Belgium
On Monday, BNP Paribas announced an acceleration of the growth strategy for its Commercial Bank in Belgium (BCEB) and raised its profitability targets, with the pre-tax return on notional equity (RONE) increasing from 20% to 22% by 2028 and from 23% to 25% by 2030.
A Profitable Growth Trajectory Driven by Revenue and Digital Transformation
The BCEB will pursue an average annual revenue growth of 9% between 2025 and 2028, primarily fueled by net interest income. This momentum is based on the enhancement of the commercial offering and strengthening customer proximity across its three key franchises: retail, private banking, and corporate, where the Belgian subsidiary claims leadership positions. The acceleration of digital transformation and the deployment of artificial intelligence will be a major lever. For instance, interactions via virtual assistant are expected to increase to nearly 7 million in 2028, up from 1 million in 2025, representing an average annual growth rate of over 90%. The simplification of the operational model will accompany this expansion. The cost-income ratio will improve by about 10 percentage points to reach around 59% in 2028, generating a positive scissors effect of more than 5% per year.
Stable Balance Sheet Structure and Controlled Risk Cost
Loans and deposits will show an average annual growth of about 2% over 2025-2028, with a stabilized structure. The cost of risk will average about 10 basis points of customer loan outstandings per year, supported by a low-risk portfolio. Risk-weighted assets (RWA) will grow at a rate of less than 1% annually, limited to half the growth of loans. These trajectories are based on assumptions of a European Central Bank benchmark rate of 2.5%, then returning to 2.0% from the end of 2027, and long-term rates at 2.8%, returning to 2.6%. The recent rise in long-term rates is considered marginally positive for the commercial banking activity in the eurozone.
Enhanced Impact on Group Profitability
The contribution of the BCEB to the profitability trajectory of the group's tangible equity (RoTE) has been raised to about 0.5% by 2028, up from about 0.3% previously. This improvement consolidates the group's RoTE target expected above 13% in 2028. The BCEB's pre-tax RONE was at 13.6% in 2025.
